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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Moreirense

T T T U S

1–2

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

33%

22%

Both score Ø 39%

33%

44%

Average goals

2,1

1,9

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

23 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 15. · Vitoria Setubal 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	Porto	9	6	2	1	+14	20
3	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	Sp Braga	9	6	2	1	+7	20
5	Sp Lisbon	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Chaves	10	3	5	2	+1	14
7	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-1	13
8	Belenenses	10	3	3	4	-4	12
9	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-4	11
10	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-3	10
14	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Moreirense	9	2	2	5	-5	8
16	Nacional	10	2	2	6	-6	8
17	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	12
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+9	10
5	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Chaves	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Rio Ave	6	2	0	4	-4	6
13	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Feirense	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Porto	5	2	2	1	+5	8
4	Chaves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
7	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-3	6
9	Maritimo	5	2	0	3	-3	6
10	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Sp Lisbon	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Estoril	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-1	4
15	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Arouca	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.