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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Belenenses

T T T S U

2–2

Full-time

Nacional

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

60%

33%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

3,3

2,1

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

2,1

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 14. · Nacional 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+19	38
2	Porto	15	11	3	1	+21	36
3	Benfica	15	11	1	3	+25	34
4	Sp Braga	15	7	5	3	+12	26
5	Pacos Ferreira	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Arouca	16	5	8	3	+3	23
7	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	7	3	+5	22
8	Guimaraes	16	6	4	6	-4	22
9	Rio Ave	15	6	3	6	+1	21
10	Maritimo	15	5	3	7	-7	18
11	Moreirense	16	4	5	7	-4	17
12	Estoril	16	4	5	7	-7	17
13	U. Madeira	16	4	5	7	-11	17
14	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-14	17
15	Nacional	15	4	4	7	-3	16
16	Academica	15	3	4	8	-13	13
17	Boavista	16	2	4	10	-13	10
18	Tondela	16	2	2	12	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+15	22
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+11	19
4	Rio Ave	8	5	0	3	+3	15
5	U. Madeira	9	4	3	2	+0	15
6	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+11	14
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+7	14
8	Arouca	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+2	14
10	Nacional	7	3	3	1	+4	12
11	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
12	Maritimo	7	3	2	2	+2	11
13	Academica	8	3	2	3	-4	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	6	1	-1	9
15	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Guimaraes	8	2	2	4	-1	8
17	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+8	19
2	Porto	7	4	2	1	+6	14
3	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	-3	14
4	Benfica	7	4	1	2	+7	13
5	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+1	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Arouca	8	1	6	1	+0	9
9	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
11	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
13	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-10	5
14	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-5	4
15	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-7	4
16	Belenenses	8	0	3	5	-16	3
17	Academica	7	0	2	5	-9	2
18	U. Madeira	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.