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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Nacional

T S U T U

3–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 29%

22%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

52%

43%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Pacos Ferreira 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	23	18	4	1	+35	58
2	Benfica	23	18	1	4	+46	55
3	Porto	23	16	4	3	+29	52
4	Sp Braga	23	12	7	4	+23	43
5	Arouca	23	8	10	5	+6	34
6	Rio Ave	23	9	6	8	+0	33
7	Guimaraes	23	8	9	6	-1	33
8	Pacos Ferreira	23	8	7	8	+2	31
9	Vitoria Setubal	23	6	10	7	-6	28
10	Belenenses	23	7	7	9	-20	28
11	Estoril	23	7	6	10	-7	27
12	Maritimo	23	7	4	12	-13	25
13	U. Madeira	23	6	6	11	-14	24
14	Moreirense	23	6	5	12	-13	23
15	Nacional	23	5	7	11	-12	22
16	Boavista	23	5	6	12	-14	21
17	Academica	23	4	7	12	-19	19
18	Tondela	23	2	4	17	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	9	3	0	+15	30
2	Porto	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+25	27
4	Sp Braga	11	7	3	1	+20	24
5	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+4	22
6	U. Madeira	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Arouca	11	5	3	3	+5	18
8	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Guimaraes	12	4	4	4	+2	16
11	Academica	12	4	4	4	-5	16
12	Belenenses	11	4	4	3	-5	16
13	Nacional	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	+2	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	8	2	-6	14
16	Boavista	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Moreirense	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Porto	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Sp Braga	12	5	4	3	+3	19
5	Guimaraes	11	4	5	2	-3	17
6	Arouca	12	3	7	2	+1	16
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	4	2	5	+0	14
8	Pacos Ferreira	11	3	5	3	-1	14
9	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-6	14
10	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-15	12
11	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-4	11
12	Boavista	12	3	2	7	-8	11
13	Maritimo	12	3	2	7	-15	11
14	Estoril	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Nacional	12	1	4	7	-10	7
16	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-9	5
17	U. Madeira	11	1	2	8	-16	5
18	Academica	11	0	3	8	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.