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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Estoril

U S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 35%

37%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

41%

44%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estoril 8. · Pacos Ferreira 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	23	1	4	+57	70
2	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+39	65
3	Porto	27	19	4	4	+30	61
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+20	50
5	Arouca	28	11	11	6	+5	44
6	Rio Ave	27	11	6	10	-1	39
7	Pacos Ferreira	27	9	9	9	+0	36
8	Estoril	27	10	6	11	+0	36
9	Guimaraes	28	8	11	9	-5	35
10	Nacional	28	9	7	12	-8	34
11	Belenenses	27	8	9	10	-18	33
12	Maritimo	28	9	5	14	-14	32
13	Vitoria Setubal	28	6	11	11	-12	29
14	Moreirense	27	7	7	13	-13	28
15	U. Madeira	28	6	8	14	-19	26
16	Boavista	28	6	7	15	-14	25
17	Academica	28	5	8	15	-22	23
18	Tondela	27	3	5	19	-25	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	0	2	+34	36
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+24	30
5	Arouca	14	7	4	3	+7	25
6	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
7	Nacional	14	7	3	4	+3	24
8	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
9	U. Madeira	14	5	6	3	+2	21
10	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	+2	20
11	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	4	5	+3	19
12	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	-3	19
13	Academica	14	5	4	5	-6	19
14	Guimaraes	15	4	6	5	+1	18
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	8	4	-8	14
16	Moreirense	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Boavista	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Tondela	14	1	3	10	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+23	34
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
3	Porto	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-4	20
5	Arouca	14	4	7	3	-2	19
6	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	5	4	-3	17
8	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	-6	17
9	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	3	7	-4	15
10	Boavista	14	4	3	7	-5	15
11	Estoril	14	4	3	7	-5	15
12	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-4	14
13	Belenenses	14	3	5	6	-15	14
14	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Nacional	14	2	4	8	-11	10
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-11	8
17	U. Madeira	14	1	2	11	-21	5
18	Academica	14	0	4	10	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.