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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Milan

S T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Lazio

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 46%

45%

47%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

57%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

19 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 4

2 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Lazio 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	27	3	2	+43	84
2	Napoli	31	19	7	5	+31	64
3	Inter	31	17	6	8	+22	57
4	Roma	32	15	9	8	+12	54
5	Atalanta	31	15	7	9	+23	52
6	Milan	31	14	10	7	+15	52
7	Lazio	30	14	7	9	+12	49
8	Torino	31	12	13	6	+12	49
9	Sampdoria	31	13	6	12	+10	45
10	Fiorentina	31	8	15	8	+7	39
11	Sassuolo	31	8	12	11	-5	36
12	Cagliari	31	9	9	13	-13	36
13	Spal	32	9	8	15	-15	35
14	Genoa	31	8	10	13	-14	34
15	Parma	31	9	7	15	-17	34
16	Udinese	31	8	8	15	-14	32
17	Bologna	31	7	9	15	-16	30
18	Empoli	31	7	7	17	-19	28
19	Frosinone	31	5	8	18	-31	23
20	Chievo	31	1	11	19	-43	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	2	0	+25	44
2	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+22	37
3	Roma	16	9	5	2	+11	32
4	Milan	16	9	4	3	+10	31
5	Inter	15	9	3	3	+14	30
6	Lazio	15	8	4	3	+12	28
7	Torino	15	9	1	5	+8	28
8	Cagliari	16	7	6	3	+4	27
9	Sampdoria	15	8	2	5	+10	26
10	Atalanta	15	7	4	4	+12	25
11	Empoli	16	7	3	6	+1	24
12	Genoa	16	6	6	4	+0	24
13	Udinese	16	7	3	6	-1	24
14	Fiorentina	15	5	7	3	+8	22
15	Sassuolo	16	5	7	4	+0	22
16	Spal	16	5	6	5	-4	21
17	Bologna	15	5	4	6	-3	19
18	Parma	16	4	5	7	-8	17
19	Chievo	15	1	5	9	-17	8
20	Frosinone	15	1	5	9	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	1	2	+18	40
2	Atalanta	16	8	3	5	+11	27
3	Napoli	15	8	3	4	+9	27
4	Inter	16	8	3	5	+8	27
5	Roma	16	6	4	6	+1	22
6	Milan	15	5	6	4	+5	21
7	Torino	16	3	12	1	+4	21
8	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+0	21
9	Sampdoria	16	5	4	7	+0	19
10	Fiorentina	16	3	8	5	-1	17
11	Parma	15	5	2	8	-9	17
12	Frosinone	16	4	3	9	-13	15
13	Sassuolo	15	3	5	7	-5	14
14	Spal	16	4	2	10	-11	14
15	Bologna	16	2	5	9	-13	11
16	Genoa	15	2	4	9	-14	10
17	Cagliari	15	2	3	10	-17	9
18	Udinese	15	1	5	9	-13	8
19	Chievo	16	0	6	10	-26	6
20	Empoli	15	0	4	11	-20	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.