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Eredivisie

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers

Ajax

S S S S T

3–1

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,8

This season — Eredivisie · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 79%

77%

81%

Points per game

2,4

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

77%

Both score Ø 41%

35%

46%

Average goals

4,2

3,7

Scored

3,4

3,0

Conceded

0,8

0,6

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+2,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · PSV Eindhoven 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	21	4	1	+63	67
2	Ajax	26	20	2	4	+66	62
3	AZ Alkmaar	27	15	5	7	+23	50
4	Feyenoord	27	14	5	8	+21	47
5	Heracles	25	13	3	9	+3	42
6	Utrecht	24	10	7	7	+7	37
7	Willem II	27	11	4	12	-6	37
8	Heerenveen	27	9	9	9	-2	36
9	Vitesse	24	9	8	7	+7	35
10	VVV Venlo	27	9	6	12	-12	33
11	Groningen	25	9	5	11	-1	32
12	Zwolle	27	9	5	13	-8	32
13	Den Haag	27	7	8	12	-17	29
14	For Sittard	27	8	5	14	-19	29
15	Excelsior	27	7	5	15	-28	26
16	De Graafschap	27	7	4	16	-25	25
17	FC Emmen	27	6	7	14	-33	25
18	NAC Breda	27	4	6	17	-39	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+42	37
2	Ajax	13	11	2	0	+46	35
3	Feyenoord	13	11	0	2	+24	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	3	2	+19	30
5	Heracles	12	9	0	3	+14	27
6	Utrecht	13	6	4	3	+9	22
7	Vitesse	11	6	4	1	+7	22
8	For Sittard	13	6	3	4	+6	21
9	VVV Venlo	13	6	3	4	+6	21
10	Groningen	12	6	1	5	+5	19
11	Excelsior	14	5	3	6	-10	18
12	De Graafschap	14	5	2	7	-1	17
13	Willem II	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-8	16
15	Den Haag	14	4	4	6	-10	16
16	Zwolle	14	4	3	7	-4	15
17	Heerenveen	14	3	5	6	-9	14
18	FC Emmen	13	2	5	6	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+21	30
2	Ajax	13	9	0	4	+20	27
3	Heerenveen	13	6	4	3	+7	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	2	5	+4	20
5	Willem II	14	6	2	6	-4	20
6	Zwolle	13	5	2	6	-4	17
7	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-2	15
8	Heracles	13	4	3	6	-11	15
9	Feyenoord	14	3	5	6	-3	14
10	FC Emmen	14	4	2	8	-23	14
11	Vitesse	13	3	4	6	+0	13
12	Groningen	13	3	4	6	-6	13
13	Den Haag	13	3	4	6	-7	13
14	VVV Venlo	14	3	3	8	-18	12
15	Excelsior	13	2	2	9	-18	8
16	De Graafschap	13	2	2	9	-24	8
17	For Sittard	14	2	2	10	-25	8
18	NAC Breda	13	0	2	11	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.