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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

Excelsior

U T T T T

1–2

Full-time

NAC Breda

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,3

Conceded

1,2

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,3

This season — Eredivisie · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 21%

26%

15%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

59%

63%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

44%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

2,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 12

3 Blocked shots 5

10 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · NAC Breda 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	27	21	4	2	+61	67
2	Ajax	27	21	2	4	+68	65
3	AZ Alkmaar	28	15	6	7	+23	51
4	Feyenoord	27	14	5	8	+21	47
5	Heracles	26	13	3	10	+2	42
6	Utrecht	25	11	7	7	+11	40
7	Willem II	28	12	4	12	-5	40
8	Vitesse	25	9	9	7	+7	36
9	Heerenveen	27	9	9	9	-2	36
10	Groningen	26	10	5	11	+0	35
11	VVV Venlo	28	9	6	13	-16	33
12	Zwolle	27	9	5	13	-8	32
13	Den Haag	27	7	8	12	-17	29
14	For Sittard	27	8	5	14	-19	29
15	Excelsior	27	7	5	15	-28	26
16	De Graafschap	28	7	4	17	-26	25
17	FC Emmen	27	6	7	14	-33	25
18	NAC Breda	27	4	6	17	-39	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	14	12	2	0	+48	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+42	37
3	Feyenoord	13	11	0	2	+24	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	3	2	+19	30
5	Heracles	13	9	0	4	+13	27
6	Vitesse	12	6	5	1	+7	23
7	Utrecht	13	6	4	3	+9	22
8	Groningen	13	7	1	5	+6	22
9	For Sittard	13	6	3	4	+6	21
10	VVV Venlo	14	6	3	5	+2	21
11	Excelsior	14	5	3	6	-10	18
12	De Graafschap	14	5	2	7	-1	17
13	Willem II	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-8	16
15	Den Haag	14	4	4	6	-10	16
16	Zwolle	14	4	3	7	-4	15
17	Heerenveen	14	3	5	6	-9	14
18	FC Emmen	13	2	5	6	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	9	3	2	+19	30
2	Ajax	13	9	0	4	+20	27
3	Willem II	15	7	2	6	-3	23
4	Heerenveen	13	6	4	3	+7	22
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	3	5	+4	21
6	Utrecht	12	5	3	4	+2	18
7	Zwolle	13	5	2	6	-4	17
8	Heracles	13	4	3	6	-11	15
9	Feyenoord	14	3	5	6	-3	14
10	FC Emmen	14	4	2	8	-23	14
11	Vitesse	13	3	4	6	+0	13
12	Groningen	13	3	4	6	-6	13
13	Den Haag	13	3	4	6	-7	13
14	VVV Venlo	14	3	3	8	-18	12
15	Excelsior	13	2	2	9	-18	8
16	For Sittard	14	2	2	10	-25	8
17	De Graafschap	14	2	2	10	-25	8
18	NAC Breda	13	0	2	11	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.