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Eredivisie
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Ajax
S S S S S
4–4
Full-time
Heerenveen
T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
5,7
4,3
Scored
5,0
2,0
Conceded
0,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+4,3
-0,3
This season — Eredivisie · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 59%
88%
29%
Points per game
2,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 74%
76%
71%
Both score Ø 53%
29%
76%
Average goals
4,0
4,4
Scored
3,5
2,1
Conceded
0,5
2,3
Goal diff per game
+3,1
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

67% Possession 33%
27 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 9
6 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 7
11 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heerenveen 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 18 16 1 1 +52 49
2 Ajax 17 15 1 1 +52 46
3 Feyenoord 18 11 3 4 +13 36
4 AZ Alkmaar 18 8 4 6 +7 28
5 VVV Venlo 18 7 5 6 -1 26
6 Heracles 17 8 2 7 -3 26
7 Utrecht 16 7 4 5 +3 25
8 Vitesse 16 6 5 5 +2 23
9 Willem II 18 6 4 8 -6 22
10 Heerenveen 17 5 5 7 -3 20
11 For Sittard 18 5 5 8 -5 20
12 Den Haag 18 5 5 8 -13 20
13 Groningen 17 5 3 9 -3 18
14 Zwolle 18 5 3 10 -11 18
15 FC Emmen 18 4 6 8 -17 18
16 Excelsior 18 4 4 10 -23 16
17 NAC Breda 18 4 3 11 -19 15
18 De Graafschap 18 4 3 11 -25 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax Heerenveen
1–0 D. Tadić
L. Schöne
13′
14′
S. Lammers 1–1
2–1 D. Tadić
H. Ziyech
16′
2–2 P. van Amersfoort
own goal
28′
Half-time 2–3
51′
S. Lammers 2–3
K. Pierie
56′
M. van Bergen 2–4
S. Lammers
64′
🔁 R. Kongolo
↦ S. Schaars
R. Kristensen 🔁
↦ D. Sinkgraven
68′
David Neres 🔁
↦ D. van de Beek
69′
K. Huntelaar 🔁
↦ K. Dolberg
79′
82′
🔁 J. Bruijn
↦ M. van Bergen
3–4 K. Huntelaar
D. Tadić
83′
90′
🟨 Jordy Bruijn
91′
K. Pierie 3–5
A. Zeneli
Full-time 3–5

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
26 K. Lamprou G
17 D. Blind D
8 D. Sinkgraven D
4 M. de Ligt D
20 L. Schöne M
22 H. Ziyech M
6 D. van de Beek M
12 N. Mazraoui D
21 F. de Jong M
10 D. Tadić M
25 K. Dolberg F
Bench (9)
2 R. Kristensen
7 David Neres
9 K. Huntelaar
30 D. de Wit
32 V. Černý
19 Z. Labyad
16 L. Magallán
52 I. El Maach
51 S. van Bladeren

Coach: E. ten Hag

Heerenveen

4-3-3
1 W. Hahn G
3 D. Høegh D
16 L. Woudenberg D
2 S. Floranus D
5 K. Pierie D
6 S. Schaars M
19 P. van Amersfoort M
18 M. Vlap M
13 A. Zeneli F
9 S. Lammers F
11 M. van Bergen F
Bench (9)
15 R. Kongolo
26 J. Bruijn
22 E. Frederiksen
24 T. Doornbusch
23 F. Bednarek
27 V. Drkušić
30 A. van der Heide
17 N. Mihajlović
35 J. Hornkamp

Coach: J. Olde Riekerink

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk · 131 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.