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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Ajax

S S S T S

5–1

Full-time

Roda

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Roda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,7

1,8

Scored

4,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+3,3

-0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,9

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

22 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 3. · Roda 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	0	1	+25	33
2	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	1	3	+7	28
3	Ajax	12	8	1	3	+25	25
4	Zwolle	13	7	4	2	+7	25
5	Feyenoord	13	6	4	3	+9	22
6	Vitesse	11	5	3	3	+8	18
7	Heerenveen	12	5	3	4	-1	18
8	Heracles	13	5	3	5	-3	18
9	Den Haag	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Excelsior	12	5	2	5	-2	17
11	Utrecht	10	5	1	4	-4	16
12	VVV Venlo	13	3	6	4	-4	15
13	Groningen	13	3	3	7	-5	12
14	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	5	5	-9	11
15	Willem II	13	3	2	8	-12	11
16	Twente	13	3	0	10	-9	9
17	NAC Breda	13	2	3	8	-17	9
18	Roda	12	2	1	9	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Heracles	8	5	2	1	+5	17
3	Zwolle	6	5	0	1	+7	15
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	5	0	2	+3	15
5	Groningen	8	3	3	2	+1	12
6	Utrecht	5	3	1	1	+0	10
7	Ajax	5	3	0	2	+7	9
8	Twente	6	3	0	3	+1	9
9	Feyenoord	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Den Haag	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	VVV Venlo	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Vitesse	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Willem II	6	1	1	4	-3	4
15	Roda	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Heerenveen	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	NAC Breda	6	1	1	4	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+18	16
2	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Feyenoord	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Heerenveen	6	4	2	0	+7	14
5	Vitesse	6	4	1	1	+8	13
6	Excelsior	6	4	1	1	+4	13
7	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+4	13
8	Zwolle	7	2	4	1	+0	10
9	VVV Venlo	6	2	3	1	+0	9
10	Den Haag	5	3	0	2	+0	9
11	Willem II	7	2	1	4	-9	7
12	Utrecht	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	NAC Breda	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Sparta Rotterdam	6	0	3	3	-8	3
15	Roda	7	1	0	6	-10	3
16	Heracles	5	0	1	4	-8	1
17	Groningen	5	0	0	5	-6	0
18	Twente	7	0	0	7	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.