Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Milan
Torino
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Inter
|
14 | 11 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 36 |
| 2 |
Napoli
|
13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | +25 | 35 |
| 3 |
Juventus
|
13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | +23 | 31 |
| 4 |
Roma
|
12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +15 | 30 |
| 5 |
Lazio
|
12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +18 | 28 |
| 6 |
Sampdoria
|
13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 26 |
| 7 |
Bologna
|
14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | +0 | 20 |
| 8 |
Chievo
|
14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |
Milan
|
13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 |
Torino
|
13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 |
Fiorentina
|
13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +4 | 17 |
| 12 |
Atalanta
|
13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 13 |
Cagliari
|
14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 |
Udinese
|
12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |
Crotone
|
13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 12 |
| 16 |
Sassuolo
|
14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 11 |
| 17 |
Spal
|
14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 |
Genoa
|
13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |
Verona
|
14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 20 |
Benevento
|
13 | 0 | 0 | 13 | -27 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Napoli
Milan
Sassuolo
Milan
Milan
Juventus
Chievo
Milan
Milan
Genoa
Massimiliano Irrati · 66 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.