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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

De Graafschap

T T T T

1–3

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

De Graafschap AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

0,3

0,5

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

0,3

0,5

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 9

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match De Graafschap 18. · AZ Alkmaar 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Heracles	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	Feyenoord	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Roda	4	3	0	1	+1	9
5	PSV Eindhoven	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Zwolle	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
9	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Utrecht	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Den Haag	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	0	2	2	-4	2
15	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Twente	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-10	1
18	De Graafschap	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Vitesse	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Heracles	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Roda	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Heerenveen	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Excelsior	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Den Haag	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	AZ Alkmaar	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Twente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Heracles	2	1	0	1	+3	3
4	Feyenoord	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Den Haag	2	1	0	1	-1	3
6	Roda	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	PSV Eindhoven	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Heerenveen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Vitesse	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Twente	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	De Graafschap	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.