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Championship
Referee: Jeremy Simpson
Middlesbrough
U S U T S
2–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Milton Keynes Dons
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,6
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 30%
40%
20%
Both score Ø 30%
40%
20%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
1,4
1,0
Conceded
0,6
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,2
This season — Championship · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,6
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 30%
40%
20%
Both score Ø 30%
40%
20%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
1,4
1,0
Conceded
0,6
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%
17 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 6
5 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 7. · Milton Keynes Dons 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Brighton 5 4 1 0 +4 13
2 Hull 5 3 1 1 +4 10
3 QPR 6 3 1 2 +1 10
4 Ipswich 6 3 1 2 -1 10
5 Reading 6 2 3 1 +5 9
6 Cardiff 5 2 3 0 +3 9
7 Middlesbrough 5 2 2 1 +4 8
8 Birmingham 4 2 2 0 +3 8
9 Charlton 5 2 2 1 +2 8
10 Nott'm Forest 6 2 2 2 +0 8
11 Burnley 5 2 2 1 +0 8
12 Leeds 5 1 4 0 +1 7
13 Milton Keynes Dons 5 2 1 2 +1 7
14 Wolves 5 2 1 2 -1 7
15 Fulham 5 1 2 2 +0 5
16 Sheffield Weds 5 1 2 2 -1 5
17 Preston 5 1 2 2 -2 5
18 Brentford 4 1 1 2 -1 4
19 Derby 5 0 4 1 -1 4
20 Bristol City 5 1 1 3 -4 4
21 Blackburn 5 0 3 2 -2 3
22 Huddersfield 5 0 3 2 -3 3
23 Bolton 5 0 3 2 -4 3
24 Rotherham 5 0 1 4 -8 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Milton Keynes Dons
Adam Clayton 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–0
F. Amorebieta 🔁
↦ B. Gibson
49′
56′
🔁 S. Church
↦ S. Gallagher
C. Stuani 🔁
↦ A. Reach
61′
69′
🟨 Samir Carruthers
1–0 S. Downing
F. Amorebieta
70′
71′
🔁 C. Baker
↦ D. Powell
76′
🟨 Carl Baker
79′
🔁 R. Hall
↦ S. Carruthers
2–0 D. Nugent
S. Downing
81′
A. Forshaw 🔁
↦ D. Fabbrini
83′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

1 D. Konstantopoulos G
3 G. Friend D
4 Daniel Ayala D
6 B. Gibson D
20 A. Reach M
26 T. Kalas D
19 S. Downing F
7 G. Leadbitter M
8 A. Clayton M
35 D. Nugent F
31 D. Fabbrini F
Bench (7)
5 F. Amorebieta
18 C. Stuani
34 A. Forshaw
24 Nsue
13 Tomás
9 Kike
16 J. Stephens

Milton Keynes Dons

1 David Martin
5 K. McFadzean D
3 D. Lewington D
12 J. Spence D
6 A. Kay D
14 S. Carruthers M
39 D. Poyet M
9 D. Bowditch M
17 D. Powell M
31 Josh Murphy M
13 S. Gallagher F
Bench (7)
11 S. Church
7 C. Baker
38 R. Hall
18 Sergio Aguza
2 L. Hodson
29 C. Burns
4 M. Upson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jeremy Simpson · 104 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.