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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Estoril

T S T

1–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

7 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Estoril 13. · Sp Braga 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+10	9
2	Porto	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Arouca	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+4	5
7	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	U. Madeira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Boavista	3	1	1	1	-3	4
11	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-6	3
15	Maritimo	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	Moreirense	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Academica	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	U. Madeira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Maritimo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Guimaraes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Academica	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	2
5	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Porto	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
8	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
9	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-4	1
10	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
11	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	U. Madeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.