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La Liga
Referee: Antonio Mateu
Ath Madrid
S S
1–2
Full-time
Barcelona
S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,0
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,0
This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,0
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

31% Possession 69%
11 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 10
3 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Barcelona 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 3 2 1 0 +11 7
2 Celta 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 Eibar 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Ath Madrid 2 2 0 0 +4 6
5 Barcelona 2 2 0 0 +2 6
6 Valencia 3 1 2 0 +1 5
7 Villarreal 2 1 1 0 +2 4
8 Granada 2 1 0 1 -1 3
9 Espanol 3 1 0 2 -7 3
10 La Coruna 2 0 2 0 +0 2
11 Sociedad 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Levante 3 0 2 1 -1 2
13 Sp Gijon 3 0 2 1 -1 2
14 Sevilla 3 0 2 1 -3 2
15 Malaga 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Las Palmas 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Vallecano 2 0 1 1 -3 1
18 Betis 2 0 1 1 -5 1
19 Getafe 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Ath Bilbao 2 0 0 2 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Barcelona
Óliver Torres 🟨
18′
28′
🔁 J. Mathieu
↦ T. Vermaelen
Filipe Luís 🟨
43′
44′
🟨 Andrés Iniesta
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Fernando Torres ⚽
Tiago
51′
55′
⚽ Neymar 1–1
Y. Ferreira Carrasco 🔁
↦ Óliver Torres
60′
60′
🔁 L. Messi
↦ I. Rakitić
J. Martínez 🔁
↦ Fernando Torres
62′
77′
⚽ L. Messi 1–2
L. Suárez
L. Vietto 🔁
↦ Gabi
81′
José Giménez 🟨
89′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

13 J. Oblak G
20 Juanfran D
3 Filipe Luis D
2 D. Godín D
24 J. Giménez D
5 Tiago M
14 Gabi M
6 Koke M
10 Óliver Torres M
9 Fernando Torres F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (7)
21 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
11 J. Martínez
23 L. Vietto
1 Moyá
15 S. Savić
17 Saúl
18 Jesús Gámez

Barcelona

1 M. ter Stegen G
23 T. Vermaelen D
18 Jordi Alba D
14 J. Mascherano M
8 Iniesta M
4 I. Rakitić M
5 Busquets M
20 Sergi Roberto D
12 Rafinha M
9 L. Suárez F
11 Neymar F
Bench (7)
24 J. Mathieu
10 L. Messi
15 Bartra
17 Munir
19 Sandro Ramírez
21 Adriano Correia
25 Jordi Masip

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Antonio Mateu · 160 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.