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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Arsenal

T S U S

2–0

Full-time

Stoke

T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

29 Shots 8

12 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 10

13 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 7. · Stoke 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Everton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
4	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Man United	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
9	West Ham	4	2	0	2	+3	6
10	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	West Brom	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Chelsea	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Tottenham	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Watford	4	0	3	1	-2	3
18	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Man United	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Everton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Tottenham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Arsenal	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	West Brom	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Swansea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Stoke	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Watford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.