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Ligue 1

Referee: Jeremy Stinat

St Etienne

S S U S S

2–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,3

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 36%

48%

24%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

52%

45%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

58%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Etienne 4. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	27	3	3	+68	84
2	Lille	34	20	8	6	+31	68
3	Lyon	34	18	8	8	+15	62
4	St Etienne	33	16	8	9	+13	56
5	Marseille	33	16	6	11	+8	54
6	Montpellier	33	13	12	8	+10	51
7	Nice	34	14	9	11	-4	51
8	Reims	34	11	16	7	-2	49
9	Nimes	34	13	7	14	-4	46
10	Strasbourg	34	10	15	9	+12	45
11	Rennes	33	11	10	12	-1	43
12	Angers	34	9	15	10	+0	42
13	Nantes	33	11	7	15	-3	40
14	Bordeaux	34	9	11	14	-6	38
15	Toulouse	33	8	12	13	-16	36
16	Amiens	34	8	9	17	-20	33
17	Monaco	33	7	11	15	-17	32
18	Caen	34	6	11	17	-21	29
19	Dijon	34	7	7	20	-24	28
20	Guingamp	34	5	9	20	-39	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	16	1	0	+49	49
2	Lille	17	11	4	2	+25	37
3	Lyon	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	St Etienne	16	11	2	3	+16	35
5	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+17	34
6	Nice	17	9	3	5	+3	30
7	Nimes	17	8	5	4	+10	29
8	Nantes	17	8	4	5	+9	28
9	Reims	17	7	7	3	+4	28
10	Montpellier	16	7	6	3	+10	27
11	Bordeaux	17	7	6	4	+5	27
12	Rennes	16	7	5	4	+7	26
13	Strasbourg	17	6	7	4	+8	25
14	Angers	17	5	8	4	+3	23
15	Amiens	17	6	4	7	-3	22
16	Toulouse	17	4	8	5	-3	20
17	Dijon	17	4	4	9	-13	16
18	Monaco	17	3	6	8	-11	15
19	Guingamp	17	3	5	9	-11	14
20	Caen	17	3	5	9	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	2	3	+19	35
2	Lille	17	9	4	4	+6	31
3	Lyon	17	7	5	5	+0	26
4	Montpellier	17	6	6	5	+0	24
5	St Etienne	17	5	6	6	-3	21
6	Reims	17	4	9	4	-6	21
7	Nice	17	5	6	6	-7	21
8	Strasbourg	17	4	8	5	+4	20
9	Marseille	17	6	2	9	-9	20
10	Angers	17	4	7	6	-3	19
11	Monaco	16	4	5	7	-6	17
12	Rennes	17	4	5	8	-8	17
13	Nimes	17	5	2	10	-14	17
14	Toulouse	16	4	4	8	-13	16
15	Caen	17	3	6	8	-10	15
16	Dijon	17	3	3	11	-11	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	12
18	Bordeaux	17	2	5	10	-11	11
19	Amiens	17	2	5	10	-17	11
20	Guingamp	17	2	4	11	-28	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.