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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

St Etienne

T U T T T

2–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

63%

42%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

47%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 10

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 22

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Etienne 17. · Toulouse 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	16	2	1	+43	50
2	Monaco	20	13	3	4	+27	42
3	Lyon	19	12	5	2	+26	41
4	Marseille	20	12	5	3	+19	41
5	Nantes	19	10	3	6	+0	33
6	Nice	20	9	3	8	-4	30
7	Guingamp	20	8	5	7	-1	29
8	Montpellier	20	6	9	5	+4	27
9	Dijon	20	7	4	9	-5	25
10	Rennes	20	7	4	9	-5	25
11	Strasbourg	20	6	6	8	-9	24
12	Caen	20	7	3	10	-10	24
13	Bordeaux	20	6	5	9	-6	23
14	Lille	20	6	4	10	-12	22
15	Amiens	20	6	3	11	-6	21
16	Troyes	20	6	3	11	-8	21
17	St Etienne	19	5	5	9	-15	20
18	Toulouse	19	5	4	10	-9	19
19	Angers	19	3	9	7	-8	18
20	Metz	20	3	3	14	-21	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	10	0	0	+27	30
2	Monaco	10	8	1	1	+19	25
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Dijon	11	6	2	3	+5	20
5	Guingamp	10	5	4	1	+7	19
6	Nantes	9	6	1	2	+4	19
7	Nice	11	6	1	4	+2	19
8	Lyon	9	5	3	1	+9	18
9	Caen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Montpellier	11	3	5	3	+2	14
12	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	14
13	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	+1	14
14	Troyes	11	4	2	5	-1	14
15	Amiens	9	4	1	4	+2	13
16	St Etienne	10	3	4	3	-4	13
17	Rennes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
18	Lille	9	3	3	3	-1	12
19	Angers	9	1	4	4	-7	7
20	Metz	10	1	1	8	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	10	7	2	1	+17	23
2	Marseille	11	6	3	2	+5	21
3	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+16	20
4	Monaco	10	5	2	3	+8	17
5	Nantes	10	4	2	4	-4	14
6	Montpellier	9	3	4	2	+2	13
7	Rennes	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Angers	10	2	5	3	-1	11
9	Nice	9	3	2	4	-6	11
10	Guingamp	10	3	1	6	-8	10
11	Lille	11	3	1	7	-11	10
12	Bordeaux	11	2	3	6	-7	9
13	Strasbourg	10	2	3	5	-11	9
14	Metz	10	2	2	6	-7	8
15	Amiens	11	2	2	7	-8	8
16	Troyes	9	2	1	6	-7	7
17	Caen	9	2	1	6	-10	7
18	St Etienne	9	2	1	6	-11	7
19	Dijon	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Toulouse	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.