Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Boavista
Moreirense
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benfica
|
31 | 25 | 3 | 3 | +64 | 78 |
| 2 |
Porto
|
31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | +45 | 76 |
| 3 |
Sp Lisbon
|
31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | +33 | 70 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | +20 | 64 |
| 5 |
Moreirense
|
30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | +6 | 45 |
| 7 |
Belenenses
|
31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | -1 | 40 |
| 8 |
Rio Ave
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 9 |
Santa Clara
|
31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 |
Aves
|
31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | -8 | 36 |
| 11 |
Portimonense
|
31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 |
Maritimo
|
31 | 11 | 3 | 17 | -17 | 36 |
| 13 |
Vitoria Setubal
|
31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -7 | 33 |
| 14 |
Boavista
|
30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 |
Tondela
|
31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -15 | 31 |
| 16 |
Chaves
|
31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |
Nacional
|
31 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -33 | 27 |
| 18 |
Feirense
|
31 | 2 | 9 | 20 | -38 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Coach: Lito Vidigal
Ivanildo Fernandes
D
Chiquinho
M
Coach: Ivo Vieira
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Tondela
Boavista
Boavista
Nacional
Porto
Boavista
Boavista
Belenenses
Guimaraes
Boavista
Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida · 167 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.