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La Liga

Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega

Girona

T S T T T

0–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

26%

19%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

42%

58%

Both score Ø 55%

52%

58%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 14. · Villarreal 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	32	22	8	2	+50	74
2	Ath Madrid	32	19	8	5	+26	65
3	Real Madrid	31	19	3	9	+18	60
4	Sevilla	32	15	7	10	+15	52
5	Getafe	32	13	12	7	+11	51
6	Valencia	31	10	16	5	+7	46
7	Ath Bilbao	32	11	13	8	-1	46
8	Alaves	32	12	9	11	-7	45
9	Betis	32	12	7	13	-5	43
10	Sociedad	32	10	11	11	-1	41
11	Espanol	32	11	8	13	-9	41
12	Eibar	32	9	13	10	-2	40
13	Leganes	31	10	10	11	-4	40
14	Girona	31	8	10	13	-10	34
15	Levante	31	8	9	14	-12	33
16	Celta	32	8	8	16	-10	32
17	Valladolid	32	7	10	15	-19	31
18	Villarreal	31	6	12	13	-6	30
19	Vallecano	32	7	6	19	-21	27
20	Huesca	32	5	10	17	-20	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	16	13	2	1	+20	41
2	Barcelona	16	12	3	1	+30	39
3	Real Madrid	16	11	1	4	+15	34
4	Sevilla	16	10	3	3	+15	33
5	Ath Bilbao	17	8	7	2	+5	31
6	Eibar	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Espanol	16	9	2	5	+1	29
8	Getafe	15	9	1	5	+10	28
9	Leganes	15	7	6	2	+6	27
10	Valencia	16	5	10	1	+9	25
11	Alaves	15	6	7	2	+2	25
12	Betis	16	7	4	5	-1	25
13	Celta	16	6	4	6	+3	22
14	Sociedad	16	5	6	5	+1	21
15	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-7	17
16	Levante	15	4	5	6	-7	17
17	Villarreal	16	3	7	6	+0	16
18	Huesca	16	3	6	7	-5	15
19	Valladolid	16	3	5	8	-10	14
20	Girona	16	2	6	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	10	5	1	+20	35
2	Real Madrid	15	8	2	5	+3	26
3	Ath Madrid	16	6	6	4	+6	24
4	Getafe	17	4	11	2	+1	23
5	Girona	15	6	4	5	+0	22
6	Valencia	15	5	6	4	-2	21
7	Sociedad	16	5	5	6	-2	20
8	Alaves	17	6	2	9	-9	20
9	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	+0	19
10	Betis	16	5	3	8	-4	18
11	Valladolid	16	4	5	7	-9	17
12	Levante	16	4	4	8	-5	16
13	Ath Bilbao	15	3	6	6	-6	15
14	Villarreal	15	3	5	7	-6	14
15	Leganes	16	3	4	9	-10	13
16	Espanol	16	2	6	8	-10	12
17	Eibar	16	1	8	7	-12	11
18	Celta	16	2	4	10	-13	10
19	Vallecano	16	3	1	12	-14	10
20	Huesca	16	2	4	10	-15	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.