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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Roma

S S T S T

1–4

Full-time

Napoli

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 55%

46%

64%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

64%

61%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

46%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,9

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 20

3 Shots on target 10

4 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 6. · Napoli 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	29	25	3	1	+41	78
2	Napoli	28	18	6	4	+29	60
3	Inter	28	16	5	7	+19	53
4	Milan	29	14	9	6	+16	51
5	Atalanta	29	14	6	9	+20	48
6	Roma	28	13	8	7	+13	47
7	Sampdoria	29	13	6	10	+12	45
8	Lazio	27	13	6	8	+12	45
9	Torino	28	11	11	6	+11	44
10	Fiorentina	28	8	13	7	+8	37
11	Genoa	29	8	9	12	-10	33
12	Cagliari	29	8	9	12	-12	33
13	Parma	29	9	6	14	-16	33
14	Sassuolo	28	7	11	10	-8	32
15	Udinese	28	7	7	14	-14	28
16	Spal	28	6	8	14	-17	26
17	Empoli	29	6	7	16	-19	25
18	Bologna	28	5	9	14	-17	24
19	Frosinone	28	3	8	17	-32	17
20	Chievo	29	1	11	17	-36	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	2	0	+24	41
2	Napoli	15	11	3	1	+22	36
3	Milan	15	9	3	3	+10	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+15	29
5	Roma	13	8	4	1	+13	28
6	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+12	27
7	Sampdoria	14	8	2	4	+11	26
8	Torino	14	8	1	5	+7	25
9	Cagliari	14	6	6	2	+5	24
10	Genoa	15	6	6	3	+4	24
11	Atalanta	14	6	4	4	+9	22
12	Fiorentina	13	5	6	2	+9	21
13	Empoli	15	6	3	6	+0	21
14	Udinese	15	6	3	6	-2	21
15	Sassuolo	15	4	7	4	-4	19
16	Parma	15	4	4	7	-8	16
17	Spal	14	3	6	5	-6	15
18	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-7	13
19	Chievo	15	1	5	9	-17	8
20	Frosinone	13	0	5	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+17	37
2	Atalanta	15	8	2	5	+11	26
3	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+7	24
4	Inter	15	7	3	5	+4	24
5	Milan	14	5	6	3	+6	21
6	Torino	14	3	10	1	+4	19
7	Sampdoria	15	5	4	6	+1	19
8	Roma	15	5	4	6	+0	19
9	Lazio	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Parma	14	5	2	7	-8	17
11	Fiorentina	15	3	7	5	-1	16
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-4	13
13	Frosinone	15	3	3	9	-14	12
14	Bologna	15	2	5	8	-10	11
15	Spal	14	3	2	9	-11	11
16	Genoa	14	2	3	9	-14	9
17	Cagliari	15	2	3	10	-17	9
18	Udinese	13	1	4	8	-12	7
19	Chievo	14	0	6	8	-19	6
20	Empoli	14	0	4	10	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.