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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Nice

S U S S T

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 30%

43%

17%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 61%

61%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

10 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 4. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	20	3	0	+48	63
2	Monaco	24	11	9	4	+7	42
3	Angers	23	10	7	6	+6	37
4	Nice	23	10	6	7	+9	36
5	Caen	23	11	3	9	-2	36
6	Marseille	24	8	10	6	+10	34
7	Rennes	23	8	10	5	+3	34
8	Bordeaux	23	8	9	6	+1	33
9	St Etienne	23	10	3	10	-2	33
10	Nantes	23	8	8	7	-1	32
11	Lyon	23	8	6	9	+1	30
12	Lorient	23	7	9	7	+0	30
13	Bastia	24	8	4	12	-7	28
14	Guingamp	23	7	6	10	-8	27
15	Lille	23	5	11	7	-1	26
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	23	6	8	9	-7	26
17	Montpellier	24	7	4	13	-3	25
18	Reims	23	5	8	10	-9	23
19	Toulouse	23	4	8	11	-16	20
20	Troyes	23	1	8	14	-29	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	9	1	0	+27	28
2	Bordeaux	12	7	3	2	+9	24
3	Bastia	12	8	0	4	+7	24
4	St Etienne	12	7	2	3	+6	23
5	Angers	12	5	6	1	+7	21
6	Monaco	12	5	5	2	+5	20
7	Nice	11	6	1	4	+6	19
8	Lorient	12	5	4	3	+6	19
9	Caen	12	6	1	5	-4	19
10	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+7	18
11	Guingamp	11	4	4	3	+2	16
12	Nantes	11	4	4	3	+0	16
13	Lille	11	4	3	4	+2	15
14	Montpellier	13	5	0	8	-3	15
15	Reims	12	3	5	4	+0	14
16	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	14
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	11	3	5	3	-2	14
18	Marseille	12	2	7	3	+6	13
19	Toulouse	11	2	5	4	-1	11
20	Troyes	13	0	6	7	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+21	35
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+2	22
3	Marseille	12	6	3	3	+4	21
4	Rennes	12	5	5	2	+4	20
5	Nice	12	4	5	3	+3	17
6	Caen	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Angers	11	5	1	5	-1	16
8	Nantes	12	4	4	4	-1	16
9	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	12	3	3	6	-5	12
10	Lyon	12	3	3	6	-6	12
11	Lille	12	1	8	3	-3	11
12	Lorient	11	2	5	4	-6	11
13	Guingamp	12	3	2	7	-10	11
14	Montpellier	11	2	4	5	+0	10
15	St Etienne	11	3	1	7	-8	10
16	Bordeaux	11	1	6	4	-8	9
17	Reims	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Toulouse	12	2	3	7	-15	9
19	Troyes	10	1	2	7	-18	5
20	Bastia	12	0	4	8	-14	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.