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Ligue 1

Referee: Johan Hamel

Toulouse

S U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Nice

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

36%

57%

Both score Ø 40%

43%

36%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

14 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 6

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 14. · Nice 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+35	38
2	Lyon	14	8	5	1	+22	29
3	Monaco	14	9	2	3	+21	29
4	Marseille	14	8	4	2	+10	28
5	Nantes	14	7	2	5	-2	23
6	Caen	15	7	2	6	-4	23
7	Amiens	15	6	3	6	+0	21
8	Montpellier	14	5	5	4	+4	20
9	Bordeaux	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	St Etienne	15	5	4	6	-7	19
11	Rennes	14	5	3	6	-1	18
12	Troyes	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Dijon	15	5	3	7	-4	18
14	Toulouse	14	4	4	6	-7	16
15	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-9	15
16	Guingamp	14	4	3	7	-9	15
17	Angers	14	2	8	4	-6	14
18	Nice	14	4	2	8	-10	14
19	Lille	14	3	3	8	-10	12
20	Metz	14	1	1	12	-21	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	7	0	0	+21	21
2	Monaco	7	5	1	1	+16	16
3	Caen	8	5	1	2	+2	16
4	Lyon	7	4	3	0	+8	15
5	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+9	14
6	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+6	14
7	Amiens	7	4	1	2	+4	13
8	Nantes	6	4	1	1	+3	13
9	Dijon	8	4	1	3	+1	13
10	Montpellier	8	3	3	2	+4	12
11	Guingamp	7	3	3	1	+2	12
12	St Etienne	8	3	3	2	+0	12
13	Toulouse	6	3	2	1	+2	11
14	Troyes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
15	Rennes	7	3	1	3	+0	10
16	Nice	8	3	1	4	-2	10
17	Strasbourg	7	2	3	2	+2	9
18	Lille	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Angers	6	0	3	3	-7	3
20	Metz	7	0	0	7	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+14	17
2	Lyon	7	4	2	1	+14	14
3	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+1	14
4	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Angers	8	2	5	1	+1	11
6	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-5	10
7	Montpellier	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Rennes	7	2	2	3	-1	8
9	Amiens	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Troyes	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Caen	7	2	1	4	-6	7
12	St Etienne	7	2	1	4	-7	7
13	Bordeaux	8	1	3	4	-6	6
14	Strasbourg	8	1	3	4	-11	6
15	Dijon	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Toulouse	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Metz	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Lille	7	1	1	5	-8	4
19	Nice	6	1	1	4	-8	4
20	Guingamp	7	1	0	6	-11	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.