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Ligue 1
Referee: Francois Letexier
Toulouse
T T T S T
1–2
Full-time
Lyon
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 45%
28%
61%
Points per game
1,1
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
39%
72%
Both score Ø 47%
44%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
0,9
2,4
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%
17 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 10
9 Blocked shots 1
8 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 4
1 Offside 7
16 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Toulouse 17. · Lyon 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 18 15 2 1 +41 47
2 Monaco 18 12 2 4 +26 38
3 Lyon 18 11 5 2 +25 38
4 Marseille 18 10 5 3 +14 35
5 Nantes 18 9 3 6 -1 30
6 Nice 18 8 2 8 -5 26
7 Rennes 18 7 4 7 -1 25
8 Dijon 18 7 3 8 -4 24
9 Strasbourg 18 6 6 6 -4 24
10 Caen 18 7 3 8 -7 24
11 Montpellier 18 5 8 5 +2 23
12 Guingamp 18 6 5 7 -4 23
13 Amiens 18 6 3 9 -4 21
14 Troyes 18 6 3 9 -5 21
15 Bordeaux 18 5 5 8 -5 20
16 St Etienne 18 5 5 8 -14 20
17 Toulouse 18 5 4 9 -8 19
18 Lille 18 5 3 10 -13 18
19 Angers 18 2 9 7 -9 15
20 Metz 18 2 2 14 -24 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Toulouse Lyon
Alban Lafont 🟨
23′
24′
N. Fekir 0–1
43′
🟨 Mariano Díaz
Half-time 0–1
Giannelli Imbula 🟨
55′
62′
🔁 J. Ferri
↦ T. NDombèlé
I. Sangaré 🔁
↦ A. Blin
67′
Ibrahim Sangaré 🟨
72′
74′
🟨 Jordan Ferri
C. Jean 🔁
↦ Somália
78′
78′
🔁 Rafael
↦ M. Depay
Y. Sanogo 🔁
↦ K. Amian
82′
87′
🔁 M. Diakhaby
↦ M. Díaz
93′
Rafael 0–2
J. Ferri
1–2 M. Gradel
96′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Toulouse

4-4-2
40 A. Lafont G
6 C. Jullien D
20 S. Yago D
12 Issiaga Sylla D
5 I. Diop D
2 K. Amian D
19 Somália M
25 G. Imbula M
27 A. Blin M
7 M. Gradel M
10 A. Delort F
Bench (7)
17 I. Sangaré
8 C. Jean
9 Y. Sanogo
1 M. Goicoechea
4 Y. Cahuzac
11 O. Toivonen
13 C. Michelin

Coach: P. Dupraz

Lyon

4-3-3
1 Anthony Lopes G
15 J. Morel D
6 Marcelo D
20 Fernando Marçal D
23 K. Tete D
28 T. NDombèlé M
29 L. Tousart M
8 H. Aouar M
11 M. Depay F
9 M. Díaz F
18 N. Fekir M
Bench (7)
12 J. Ferri
4 Rafael
5 M. Diakhaby
17 M. Maolida
19 A. Gouiri
22 F. Mendy
30 M. Gorgelin

Coach: B. Génésio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Francois Letexier · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.