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Ligue 1

Referee: Lionel Jaffredo

Nice

S S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Bastia

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

77%

23%

Points per game

2,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

2,6

1,8

Scored

1,9

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

12 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 2. · Bastia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	14	10	2	2	+28	32
2	Nice	13	10	2	1	+16	32
3	Paris SG	13	9	2	2	+19	29
4	Rennes	14	7	3	4	-2	24
5	Guingamp	14	6	5	3	+5	23
6	Bordeaux	14	6	5	3	+3	23
7	Lyon	13	7	1	5	+5	22
8	St Etienne	14	5	6	3	+4	21
9	Toulouse	14	5	4	5	+4	19
10	Angers	14	5	3	6	-1	18
11	Metz	14	5	3	6	-9	18
12	Marseille	14	4	5	5	-4	17
13	Montpellier	14	3	7	4	-7	16
14	Dijon	14	3	5	6	-3	14
15	Caen	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Nantes	14	3	4	7	-9	13
17	Nancy	14	3	4	7	-11	13
18	Bastia	13	3	3	7	-3	12
19	Lille	14	3	2	9	-9	11
20	Lorient	14	2	2	10	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rennes	8	6	2	0	+8	20
2	Monaco	7	6	1	0	+20	19
3	Nice	7	6	1	0	+12	19
4	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+14	17
5	Marseille	7	4	3	0	+5	15
6	Guingamp	6	4	2	0	+4	14
7	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+3	14
8	Caen	7	4	1	2	-3	13
9	Toulouse	6	4	0	2	+6	12
10	Dijon	7	3	3	1	+5	12
11	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+5	12
12	St Etienne	7	3	3	1	+4	12
13	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	+3	12
14	Angers	7	3	2	2	+2	11
15	Bastia	7	2	3	2	+0	9
16	Lille	7	3	0	4	-3	9
17	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
18	Nancy	7	2	1	4	-4	7
19	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-7	7
20	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+8	13
2	Nice	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
4	Lyon	7	3	1	3	+0	10
5	Metz	7	3	1	3	+0	10
6	Guingamp	8	2	3	3	+1	9
7	Bordeaux	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	St Etienne	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-2	7
10	Angers	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-5	7
12	Nancy	7	1	3	3	-7	6
13	Montpellier	7	0	4	3	-10	4
14	Rennes	6	1	1	4	-10	4
15	Bastia	6	1	0	5	-3	3
16	Lille	7	0	2	5	-6	2
17	Dijon	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Marseille	7	0	2	5	-9	2
19	Lorient	7	0	1	6	-7	1
20	Caen	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.