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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Nice

T S T U U

0–2

Full-time

Bastia

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

1,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 40%

41%

38%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

48%

31%

Both score Ø 46%

56%

35%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 3. · Bastia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	23	4	0	+54	73
2	Monaco	27	13	10	4	+10	49
3	Nice	27	11	8	8	+9	41
4	St Etienne	27	12	5	10	+2	41
5	Lyon	27	11	6	10	+9	39
6	Nantes	26	10	9	7	+2	39
7	Caen	27	12	3	12	-7	39
8	Rennes	27	9	11	7	+2	38
9	Angers	27	10	7	10	+0	37
10	Bordeaux	27	9	10	8	-3	37
11	Marseille	27	8	12	7	+9	36
12	Lille	27	7	13	7	+1	34
13	Lorient	27	8	10	9	-2	34
14	Bastia	26	10	4	12	-4	34
15	Montpellier	27	9	5	13	+0	32
16	Guingamp	27	8	7	12	-7	31
17	Reims	27	7	8	12	-10	29
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	27	6	10	11	-10	28
19	Toulouse	27	4	10	13	-19	22
20	Troyes	27	2	8	17	-36	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+32	35
2	Bastia	13	9	0	4	+9	27
3	Monaco	14	7	5	2	+8	26
4	Bordeaux	14	7	4	3	+6	25
5	Lyon	13	7	3	3	+13	24
6	St Etienne	13	7	3	3	+6	24
7	Lorient	14	6	5	3	+7	23
8	Nice	13	7	2	4	+7	23
9	Lille	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Nantes	13	6	4	3	+3	22
11	Caen	14	7	1	6	-5	22
12	Angers	14	5	6	3	+3	21
13	Guingamp	13	5	4	4	+4	19
14	Montpellier	14	6	0	8	-1	18
15	Reims	14	4	5	5	+0	17
16	Rennes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	13	3	6	4	-3	15
18	Marseille	14	2	8	4	+5	14
19	Toulouse	13	2	7	4	-1	13
20	Troyes	13	0	6	7	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+22	38
2	Monaco	13	6	5	2	+2	23
3	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+4	22
4	Rennes	14	5	6	3	+3	21
5	Nice	14	4	6	4	+2	18
6	Nantes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
7	Caen	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	St Etienne	14	5	2	7	-4	17
9	Angers	13	5	1	7	-3	16
10	Lyon	14	4	3	7	-4	15
11	Montpellier	13	3	5	5	+1	14
12	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	14	3	4	7	-7	13
13	Lille	13	1	9	3	-3	12
14	Bordeaux	13	2	6	5	-9	12
15	Reims	13	3	3	7	-10	12
16	Guingamp	14	3	3	8	-11	12
17	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-9	11
18	Toulouse	14	2	3	9	-18	9
19	Troyes	14	2	2	10	-25	8
20	Bastia	13	1	4	8	-13	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.