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Ligue 1

Referee: Johan Hamel

Caen

U S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Nice

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,8

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 55%

27%

82%

Points per game

0,9

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

45%

Both score Ø 41%

27%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

12 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 18. · Nice 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+21	26
3	Paris SG	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Guingamp	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Rennes	11	6	2	3	+1	20
6	Toulouse	12	5	4	3	+6	19
7	Lyon	12	6	1	5	+4	19
8	Bordeaux	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	St Etienne	11	4	5	2	+4	17
10	Angers	12	5	2	5	+0	17
11	Dijon	12	3	5	4	-1	14
12	Marseille	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Montpellier	12	3	5	4	-7	14
14	Metz	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Bastia	12	3	2	7	-3	11
17	Lille	12	3	1	8	-8	10
18	Caen	11	3	1	7	-12	10
19	Nancy	12	2	3	7	-12	9
20	Lorient	12	2	1	9	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Monaco	6	5	1	0	+16	16
3	Rennes	6	5	1	0	+7	16
4	Guingamp	5	4	1	0	+4	13
5	Toulouse	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	Dijon	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+5	12
8	St Etienne	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Marseille	6	3	3	0	+4	12
10	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	11
11	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	+3	11
12	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	11
13	Bordeaux	6	3	2	1	+2	11
14	Lille	6	3	0	3	-2	9
15	Caen	5	3	0	2	-4	9
16	Bastia	6	2	2	2	+0	8
17	Lorient	6	2	1	3	-4	7
18	Metz	5	2	0	3	-9	6
19	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	Nancy	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Monaco	6	3	1	2	+5	10
3	Nice	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	+1	8
5	Bordeaux	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Lyon	6	2	1	3	-1	7
7	Toulouse	7	1	4	2	-1	7
8	Metz	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Nantes	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Angers	6	2	0	4	-3	6
11	St Etienne	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Nancy	6	1	2	3	-7	5
13	Rennes	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Bastia	6	1	0	5	-3	3
15	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-10	3
16	Marseille	6	0	2	4	-5	2
17	Dijon	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Lille	6	0	1	5	-6	1
19	Caen	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Lorient	6	0	0	6	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.