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Ligue 1

Referee: Wilfried Bien

Bastia

S U S T T

1–3

Full-time

Nice

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 80%

80%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 80%

80%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 9. · Nice 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Rennes	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Reims	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	St Etienne	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Caen	5	3	0	2	-1	9
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Angers	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Monaco	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Bastia	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Lille	6	1	4	1	+0	7
11	Nantes	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+5	6
13	Bordeaux	5	1	3	1	+1	6
14	Guingamp	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Nice	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-8	3
19	Montpellier	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Marseille	3	2	0	1	+8	6
4	Bastia	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Nantes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Guingamp	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-2	3
15	Caen	2	1	0	1	-3	3
16	Angers	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Lyon	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Caen	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Reims	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Bordeaux	3	0	3	0	+0	3
10	Lille	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Guingamp	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Bastia	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Toulouse	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.