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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Southampton

S U T T U

1–0

Full-time

Everton

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

25%

42%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

33%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

11 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 12. · Everton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	13	10	1	2	+19	31
2	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+18	30
3	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
4	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+15	28
5	Tottenham	13	6	6	1	+9	24
6	Man United	12	5	4	3	+3	19
7	Everton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Watford	13	5	3	5	-4	18
9	West Brom	13	4	5	4	+1	17
10	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-4	15
12	Southampton	12	3	5	4	+0	14
13	Burnley	13	4	2	7	-9	14
14	Leicester	13	3	4	6	-6	13
15	Middlesbrough	13	2	6	5	-3	12
16	Crystal Palace	13	3	2	8	-5	11
17	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-10	11
18	Hull	13	3	2	8	-17	11
19	Swansea	13	2	3	8	-10	9
20	Sunderland	13	2	2	9	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	0	1	+16	18
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+15	16
3	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+5	14
5	Burnley	8	4	1	3	+3	13
6	Man City	6	3	3	0	+7	12
7	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Everton	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+4	10
10	Watford	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Man United	6	2	3	1	+4	9
12	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-3	8
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Hull	7	2	1	4	-6	7
17	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
18	Crystal Palace	6	1	1	4	-2	4
19	Middlesbrough	6	1	1	4	-2	4
20	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+3	13
5	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Stoke	7	2	3	2	-1	9
9	Middlesbrough	7	1	5	1	-1	8
10	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Everton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-6	4
17	Hull	6	1	1	4	-11	4
18	West Ham	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Leicester	6	0	1	5	-11	1
20	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.