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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Bastia

T S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Caen

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 46%

27%

64%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 36%

45%

27%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 16. · Caen 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Angers	11	6	4	1	+6	22
3	St Etienne	12	7	1	4	+3	22
4	Caen	11	7	0	4	+0	21
5	Lyon	11	5	4	2	+8	19
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+10	17
7	Rennes	12	4	5	3	+1	17
8	Monaco	11	4	5	2	+0	17
9	Lorient	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Nantes	10	5	1	4	-1	16
11	Reims	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Guingamp	11	4	3	4	-3	15
13	Bordeaux	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Marseille	11	3	3	5	+4	12
15	Lille	11	2	5	4	-1	11
16	Bastia	11	3	1	7	-6	10
17	Montpellier	11	2	2	7	-6	8
18	Toulouse	11	1	5	5	-9	8
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	11	1	3	7	-9	6
20	Troyes	11	0	4	7	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	St Etienne	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Caen	6	4	0	2	-1	12
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	+5	11
5	Lorient	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Bordeaux	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Reims	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Angers	6	2	4	0	+2	10
9	Bastia	5	3	0	2	+3	9
10	Nantes	5	3	0	2	+0	9
11	Marseille	6	2	2	2	+7	8
12	Guingamp	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Rennes	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Lille	6	2	1	3	+0	7
15	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
16	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Montpellier	6	2	0	4	-2	6
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Monaco	5	0	3	2	-4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+11	19
2	Monaco	6	4	2	0	+4	14
3	Angers	5	4	0	1	+4	12
4	Nice	6	3	2	1	+6	11
5	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Caen	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	St Etienne	6	3	0	3	-2	9
8	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Nantes	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Guingamp	6	2	1	3	-5	7
11	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Reims	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Lille	5	0	4	1	-1	4
14	Marseille	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Bordeaux	5	0	3	2	-6	3
16	Montpellier	5	0	2	3	-4	2
17	Toulouse	6	0	2	4	-9	2
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-8	1
19	Bastia	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Troyes	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.