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La Liga

Referee: Santiago Jaime Latre

Real Madrid

S U U S S

3–1

Full-time

Las Palmas

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,0

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

67%

11%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

56%

33%

Both score Ø 28%

33%

22%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 3

6 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Las Palmas 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+18	21
2	Barcelona	9	7	0	2	+8	21
3	Ath Madrid	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Celta	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Villarreal	9	5	2	2	+6	17
6	La Coruna	10	3	5	2	+3	14
7	Eibar	9	3	4	2	+2	13
8	Sevilla	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Valencia	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Betis	9	3	3	3	-4	12
11	Espanol	9	4	0	5	-10	12
12	Ath Bilbao	9	3	2	4	+1	11
13	Getafe	9	3	1	5	-3	10
14	Vallecano	9	3	1	5	-6	10
15	Sociedad	9	2	3	4	+1	9
16	Malaga	9	2	3	4	-2	9
17	Sp Gijon	9	2	3	4	-4	9
18	Las Palmas	9	1	3	5	-7	6
19	Granada	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Levante	9	1	3	5	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Getafe	4	3	0	1	+7	9
5	Ath Bilbao	5	3	0	2	+5	9
6	Villarreal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
7	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Celta	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Valencia	4	2	2	0	+4	8
10	Malaga	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	La Coruna	5	1	3	1	+2	6
13	Espanol	4	2	0	2	-5	6
14	Eibar	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Las Palmas	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Levante	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Betis	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Sp Gijon	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Sociedad	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Granada	5	0	2	3	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	3	2	0	+9	11
2	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+6	10
3	Celta	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Eibar	5	2	2	1	+2	8
5	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	La Coruna	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Betis	5	2	2	1	-2	8
8	Sociedad	5	2	1	2	+4	7
9	Sp Gijon	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Barcelona	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Espanol	5	2	0	3	-5	6
12	Granada	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Valencia	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-2	3
15	Vallecano	4	1	0	3	-6	3
16	Ath Bilbao	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Malaga	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Las Palmas	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Levante	4	0	1	3	-9	1
20	Getafe	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.