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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Montpellier

T T S T U

2–0

Full-time

Bastia

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

10%

30%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,6

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

6 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Bastia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+16	26
2	Angers	10	6	3	1	+6	21
3	Caen	11	7	0	4	+0	21
4	Lyon	11	5	4	2	+8	19
5	St Etienne	10	6	1	3	+3	19
6	Nice	9	5	2	2	+12	17
7	Rennes	11	4	5	2	+2	17
8	Lorient	11	4	4	3	+1	16
9	Nantes	10	5	1	4	-1	16
10	Reims	10	4	3	3	+3	15
11	Monaco	10	3	5	2	-1	14
12	Guingamp	10	4	2	4	-3	14
13	Lille	10	2	5	3	+0	11
14	Bordeaux	10	2	5	3	-3	11
15	Bastia	10	3	1	6	-4	10
16	Marseille	10	2	3	5	+3	9
17	Toulouse	11	1	5	5	-9	8
18	Montpellier	10	1	2	7	-8	5
19	Troyes	10	0	4	6	-14	4
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	10	0	3	7	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caen	6	4	0	2	-1	12
2	Lyon	6	3	2	1	+5	11
3	Lorient	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Reims	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	St Etienne	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Bastia	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Angers	5	2	3	0	+2	9
9	Nantes	5	3	0	2	+0	9
10	Marseille	6	2	2	2	+7	8
11	Bordeaux	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Guingamp	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+0	8
14	Lille	5	2	1	2	+1	7
15	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
16	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Monaco	5	0	3	2	-4	3
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Angers	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Nice	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+3	11
5	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Caen	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Nantes	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Guingamp	5	2	0	3	-5	6
11	Reims	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Lille	5	0	4	1	-1	4
14	Bordeaux	5	0	3	2	-6	3
15	Montpellier	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Toulouse	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Marseille	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Bastia	5	0	1	4	-7	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Troyes	4	0	1	3	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.