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Ligue 1
Referee: Mikael Lesage
Lille
T U U
1–0
Full-time
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Gazelec FC Ajaccio
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,7
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,3
1,3
Scored
0,0
0,0
Conceded
0,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,7
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,3
1,3
Scored
0,0
0,0
Conceded
0,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%
13 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 4
4 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 17. · Gazelec FC Ajaccio 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 3 3 0 0 +4 9
2 Bastia 3 2 1 0 +4 7
3 Lyon 4 2 1 1 +4 7
4 Angers 3 2 1 0 +4 7
5 Nantes 3 2 1 0 +2 7
6 Rennes 3 2 0 1 +1 6
7 Reims 3 2 0 1 +1 6
8 Caen 4 2 0 2 -3 6
9 Monaco 3 1 2 0 +1 5
10 Nice 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Toulouse 3 1 1 1 +0 4
12 St Etienne 3 1 1 1 +0 4
13 Marseille 4 1 0 3 +2 3
14 Guingamp 4 1 0 3 -3 3
15 Bordeaux 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Lorient 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Lille 3 0 2 1 -1 2
18 Troyes 3 0 2 1 -6 2
19 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 Montpellier 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1–0 S. Boufal ⚽
D. Sidibé
23′
36′
🟨 Issiaga Sylla
45′
🟨 Kader Mangane
Half-time 1–0
52′
🟨 Roderic Filippi
M. Obbadi 🔁
↦ R. Rodelin
68′
68′
🔁 K. Boutaïb
↦ G. Pujol
72′
🔁 M. Larbi
↦ K. Mayi
Ryan Mendes 🔁
↦ E. Bauthéac
75′
Sofiane Boufal 🟨
81′
82′
🔁 I. Dia
↦ D. Ducourtioux
I. Amadou 🔁
↦ S. Boufal
88′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lille

1 V. Enyeama G
25 M. Baša D
5 R. Civelli D
2 S. Corchia D
19 D. Sidibé D
4 F. Balmont M
24 R. Mavuba M
11 E. Bauthéac M
7 S. Boufal M
21 R. Rodelin F
27 B. Guillaume F
Bench (7)
8 M. Obbadi
20 Ryan Mendes
6 I. Amadou
13 S. Sunzu
16 S. Elana
12 S. Guirassy
28 B. Pavard

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

1 C. Maury G
6 D. Ducourtioux M
15 K. Mangane D
4 R. Filippi D
21 P. Martinez D
3 Issiaga Sylla D
8 J. Le Moigne M
23 D. Đoković M
28 G. Pujol F
19 J. Zoua F
7 K. Mayi F
Bench (7)
9 K. Boutaïb
10 M. Larbi
22 I. Dia
30 J. Goda
20 L. Poggi
18 A. Youga
29 A. Coeff

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Mikael Lesage · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.