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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Roma

S S S U S

1–3

Full-time

Lazio

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

2,7

2,2

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 66%

73%

58%

Points per game

2,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

67%

55%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

55%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

12 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 5

0 Offside 6

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 2. · Lazio 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	34	27	3	4	+48	84
2	Roma	33	24	3	6	+46	75
3	Napoli	33	21	8	4	+42	71
4	Lazio	33	19	7	7	+22	64
5	Atalanta	34	19	7	8	+19	64
6	Milan	33	17	7	9	+13	58
7	Inter	33	17	5	11	+21	56
8	Fiorentina	33	15	10	8	+10	55
9	Torino	34	12	13	9	+9	49
10	Sampdoria	34	12	10	12	+0	46
11	Udinese	33	12	7	14	-1	43
12	Chievo	33	11	5	17	-16	38
13	Cagliari	33	11	5	17	-18	38
14	Sassuolo	33	10	6	17	-10	36
15	Bologna	33	9	8	16	-18	35
16	Genoa	33	7	9	17	-25	30
17	Empoli	33	7	8	18	-29	29
18	Crotone	33	6	6	21	-25	24
19	Palermo	33	3	7	23	-46	16
20	Pescara	33	2	8	23	-42	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	17	0	0	+36	51
2	Roma	16	14	1	1	+31	43
3	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+20	37
4	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+12	36
5	Lazio	17	11	2	4	+15	35
6	Milan	17	11	2	4	+12	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	7	1	+10	34
8	Inter	16	10	3	3	+21	33
9	Torino	17	8	8	1	+15	32
10	Sampdoria	17	8	5	4	+7	29
11	Udinese	17	8	3	6	+7	27
12	Cagliari	16	8	3	5	+1	27
13	Chievo	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	Sassuolo	17	6	2	9	-5	20
15	Bologna	16	6	2	8	-6	20
16	Genoa	16	4	7	5	-1	19
17	Empoli	16	4	4	8	-12	16
18	Crotone	16	4	3	9	-7	15
19	Pescara	17	1	5	11	-20	8
20	Palermo	16	1	3	12	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	16	10	4	2	+22	34
2	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+12	33
3	Roma	17	10	2	5	+15	32
4	Lazio	16	8	5	3	+7	29
5	Atalanta	17	8	4	5	+7	28
6	Milan	16	6	5	5	+1	23
7	Inter	17	7	2	8	+0	23
8	Fiorentina	16	6	3	7	+0	21
9	Torino	17	4	5	8	-6	17
10	Sampdoria	17	4	5	8	-7	17
11	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-5	16
12	Udinese	16	4	4	8	-8	16
13	Chievo	16	5	1	10	-13	16
14	Bologna	17	3	6	8	-12	15
15	Empoli	17	3	4	10	-17	13
16	Cagliari	17	3	2	12	-19	11
17	Genoa	17	3	2	12	-24	11
18	Palermo	17	2	4	11	-25	10
19	Crotone	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Pescara	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.