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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Juventus

U S S S U

0–1

Full-time

Napoli

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 79%

82%

76%

Points per game

2,6

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 41%

36%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

2,4

2,1

Conceded

0,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

4 Shots 12

0 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 1. · Napoli 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	33	27	4	2	+59	85
2	Napoli	33	25	6	2	+47	81
3	Lazio	34	20	7	7	+40	67
4	Roma	34	20	7	7	+28	67
5	Inter	34	18	12	4	+33	66
6	Atalanta	34	15	10	9	+17	55
7	Milan	34	15	9	10	+6	54
8	Fiorentina	34	14	9	11	+9	51
9	Sampdoria	34	15	6	13	-2	51
10	Torino	34	11	14	9	+7	47
11	Bologna	34	11	6	17	-7	39
12	Genoa	33	10	8	15	-7	38
13	Sassuolo	34	9	10	15	-28	37
14	Udinese	34	10	3	21	-13	33
15	Cagliari	34	9	6	19	-26	33
16	Chievo	34	7	10	17	-23	31
17	Crotone	34	8	7	19	-27	31
18	Spal	34	5	14	15	-25	29
19	Verona	33	7	4	22	-39	25
20	Benevento	34	5	2	27	-49	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	1	1	+35	43
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Inter	17	11	5	1	+23	38
4	Sampdoria	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+25	31
6	Roma	17	10	1	6	+9	31
7	Atalanta	17	8	5	4	+10	29
8	Milan	17	8	5	4	+2	29
9	Torino	17	7	6	4	+11	27
10	Fiorentina	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Bologna	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Chievo	17	5	6	6	-4	21
13	Crotone	17	5	5	7	-5	20
14	Genoa	16	5	3	8	-4	18
15	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-12	18
16	Udinese	17	5	2	10	-3	17
17	Spal	17	3	8	6	-11	17
18	Sassuolo	17	3	7	7	-11	16
19	Verona	17	5	1	11	-18	16
20	Benevento	17	4	1	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	13	3	1	+24	42
2	Napoli	16	12	4	0	+23	40
3	Roma	17	10	6	1	+19	36
4	Lazio	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Inter	17	7	7	3	+10	28
6	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+7	26
7	Fiorentina	17	7	4	6	+6	25
8	Milan	17	7	4	6	+4	25
9	Sassuolo	17	6	3	8	-17	21
10	Genoa	17	5	5	7	-3	20
11	Torino	17	4	8	5	-4	20
12	Bologna	17	5	2	10	-8	17
13	Udinese	17	5	1	11	-10	16
14	Cagliari	17	4	3	10	-14	15
15	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-17	15
16	Spal	17	2	6	9	-14	12
17	Crotone	17	3	2	12	-22	11
18	Chievo	17	2	4	11	-19	10
19	Verona	16	2	3	11	-21	9
20	Benevento	17	1	1	15	-31	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.