Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Cagliari
Bologna
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Juventus
|
33 | 27 | 4 | 2 | +59 | 85 |
| 2 |
Napoli
|
33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | +47 | 81 |
| 3 |
Roma
|
34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | +28 | 67 |
| 4 |
Lazio
|
33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | +36 | 64 |
| 5 |
Inter
|
33 | 17 | 12 | 4 | +32 | 63 |
| 6 |
Milan
|
34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +6 | 54 |
| 7 |
Atalanta
|
33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +16 | 52 |
| 8 |
Fiorentina
|
34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +9 | 51 |
| 9 |
Sampdoria
|
33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | +2 | 51 |
| 10 |
Torino
|
33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | +8 | 47 |
| 11 |
Bologna
|
33 | 11 | 5 | 17 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 |
Genoa
|
33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 38 |
| 13 |
Sassuolo
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -28 | 37 |
| 14 |
Udinese
|
33 | 10 | 3 | 20 | -12 | 33 |
| 15 |
Cagliari
|
33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | -26 | 32 |
| 16 |
Chievo
|
33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -22 | 31 |
| 17 |
Spal
|
34 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -25 | 29 |
| 18 |
Crotone
|
33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -28 | 28 |
| 19 |
Verona
|
33 | 7 | 4 | 22 | -39 | 25 |
| 20 |
Benevento
|
34 | 5 | 2 | 27 | -49 | 17 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Inter
Cagliari
Cagliari
Udinese
Verona
Cagliari
Genoa
Cagliari
Cagliari
Torino
Daniele Doveri · 82 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.