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Serie A

Referee: Fabrizio Pasqua

Napoli

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Genoa

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 55%

79%

30%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

57%

22%

Both score Ø 37%

43%

30%

Average goals

2,9

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

16 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 2. · Genoa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	29	24	3	2	+52	75
2	Napoli	28	22	4	2	+43	70
3	Roma	29	18	5	6	+26	59
4	Inter	28	15	10	3	+26	55
5	Lazio	28	16	5	7	+30	53
6	Milan	28	15	5	8	+9	50
7	Atalanta	28	12	8	8	+12	44
8	Sampdoria	28	13	5	10	+4	44
9	Fiorentina	28	11	8	9	+5	41
10	Torino	28	8	12	8	+0	36
11	Udinese	28	10	3	15	-4	33
12	Bologna	28	10	3	15	-7	33
13	Genoa	27	8	6	13	-7	30
14	Cagliari	28	8	5	15	-17	29
15	Sassuolo	28	7	6	15	-30	27
16	Spal	29	5	10	14	-22	25
17	Chievo	28	6	7	15	-22	25
18	Crotone	28	6	6	16	-23	24
19	Verona	28	6	4	18	-31	22
20	Benevento	28	3	1	24	-44	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+30	37
2	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+20	32
3	Inter	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Sampdoria	15	10	2	3	+14	32
5	Roma	15	9	1	5	+10	28
6	Milan	13	8	2	3	+3	26
7	Lazio	13	7	2	4	+17	23
8	Atalanta	13	6	4	3	+8	22
9	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+2	22
10	Torino	14	5	5	4	+7	20
11	Bologna	15	5	3	7	-1	18
12	Udinese	14	5	2	7	+1	17
13	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Crotone	15	4	4	7	-6	16
15	Spal	14	3	6	5	-8	15
16	Cagliari	14	4	2	8	-9	14
17	Verona	15	4	1	10	-18	13
18	Genoa	13	3	2	8	-6	11
19	Sassuolo	14	2	5	7	-12	11
20	Benevento	14	3	1	10	-16	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Juventus	15	12	2	1	+22	38
3	Roma	14	9	4	1	+16	31
4	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Milan	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Inter	13	6	5	2	+10	23
7	Atalanta	15	6	4	5	+4	22
8	Fiorentina	14	5	4	5	+3	19
9	Genoa	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Udinese	14	5	1	8	-5	16
11	Torino	14	3	7	4	-7	16
12	Sassuolo	14	5	1	8	-18	16
13	Bologna	13	5	0	8	-6	15
14	Cagliari	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-10	12
16	Spal	15	2	4	9	-14	10
17	Verona	13	2	3	8	-13	9
18	Chievo	15	2	3	10	-18	9
19	Crotone	13	2	2	9	-17	8
20	Benevento	14	0	0	14	-28	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.