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Serie A

Referee: Claudio Gavillucci

Genoa

T U U U S

1–2

Full-time

Carpi

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Carpi

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 20%

31%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

31%

69%

Both score Ø 50%

38%

62%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 13. · Carpi 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	3	1	+9	30
2	Napoli	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Fiorentina	13	9	1	3	+15	28
4	Roma	13	8	3	2	+14	27
5	Milan	14	7	2	5	+1	23
6	Sassuolo	13	6	4	3	+3	22
7	Juventus	13	6	3	4	+6	21
8	Torino	14	6	3	5	+2	21
9	Lazio	13	6	1	6	-4	19
10	Atalanta	13	5	3	5	-2	18
11	Chievo	13	4	4	5	+3	16
12	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-2	16
13	Genoa	13	4	4	5	-3	16
14	Palermo	13	4	3	6	-4	15
15	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-4	15
16	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Bologna	14	4	1	9	-6	13
18	Frosinone	13	3	2	8	-11	11
19	Verona	13	0	6	7	-13	6
20	Carpi	13	1	3	9	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Fiorentina	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+10	16
4	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+8	16
5	Inter	7	5	1	1	+5	16
6	Milan	7	5	1	1	+3	16
7	Sampdoria	7	4	2	1	+7	14
8	Torino	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+5	14
10	Sassuolo	6	4	2	0	+4	14
11	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+6	13
12	Genoa	6	4	1	1	+3	13
13	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	+2	10
14	Chievo	6	2	2	2	+3	8
15	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-1	8
16	Palermo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Bologna	7	2	1	4	+0	7
18	Empoli	6	2	1	3	-2	7
19	Carpi	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+4	14
2	Napoli	7	3	3	1	+6	12
3	Fiorentina	6	4	0	2	+5	12
4	Roma	7	3	2	2	+3	11
5	Chievo	7	2	2	3	+0	8
6	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	8
7	Empoli	7	2	2	3	-3	8
8	Juventus	6	2	1	3	+1	7
9	Milan	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Palermo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Torino	7	2	1	4	-4	7
13	Bologna	7	2	0	5	-6	6
14	Atalanta	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-6	3
16	Verona	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Lazio	6	1	0	5	-12	3
18	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2
19	Carpi	6	0	1	5	-12	1
20	Frosinone	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.