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La Liga
Referee: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez
Barcelona
S U S S U
3–0
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
1,8
Scored
3,0
1,0
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+0,2
This season — La Liga · 20/20 matches
Win Ø 53%
60%
45%
Points per game
2,1
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 63%
60%
65%
Average goals
3,5
2,4
Scored
2,6
1,3
Conceded
0,9
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%
16 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 0
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Barcelona 2. · Ath Bilbao 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 19 14 4 1 +34 46
2 Barcelona 20 12 6 2 +34 42
3 Sevilla 20 13 3 4 +15 42
4 Ath Madrid 20 10 6 4 +18 36
5 Sociedad 20 11 2 7 +3 35
6 Villarreal 20 9 7 4 +14 34
7 Ath Bilbao 20 9 5 6 +4 32
8 Espanol 21 8 8 5 +2 32
9 Celta 20 9 3 8 -2 30
10 Eibar 20 8 5 7 -1 29
11 Las Palmas 20 7 7 6 +0 28
12 Alaves 20 5 9 6 -3 24
13 Betis 20 6 5 9 -10 23
14 Malaga 21 5 7 9 -7 22
15 Valencia 19 5 4 10 -7 19
16 La Coruna 20 4 7 9 -7 19
17 Leganes 20 4 6 10 -18 18
18 Sp Gijon 20 3 4 13 -19 13
19 Osasuna 20 1 7 12 -22 10
20 Granada 20 1 7 12 -28 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Barcelona Ath Bilbao
1–0 Paco Alcácer
Neymar
18′
Gerard Piqué 🟨
22′
27′
🟨 Ander Iturraspe
34′
🟨 Óscar de Marcos
2–0 L. Messi
40′
Half-time 2–0
J. Mascherano 🔁
↦ Piqué
46′
52′
🔁 Aduriz
↦ Lekue
I. Rakitić 🔁
↦ Rafinha
54′
59′
🔁 Beñat
↦ San José
Sergi Roberto 🔁
↦ L. Messi
64′
3–0 Aleix Vidal
67′
70′
🟨 Aymeric Laporte
74′
🔁 Eraso
↦ Raúl García
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
24 J. Mathieu D
3 Piqué D
23 S. Umtiti D
7 A. Turan M
22 Aleix Vidal M
12 Rafinha M
21 André Gomes M
10 L. Messi F
11 Neymar F
17 Paco Alcácer F
Bench (7)
14 J. Mascherano
4 I. Rakitić
20 Sergi Roberto
18 Jordi Alba
13 J. Cillessen
6 Denis Suárez
9 L. Suárez

Coach: Luis Enrique

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 Iraizoz G
6 San José M
24 Balenziaga D
4 A. Laporte D
27 Yeray Álvarez D
15 Lekue D
22 Raúl García M
8 Iturraspe M
18 De Marcos D
10 Muniain F
11 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (7)
20 Aduriz
7 Beñat
5 Eraso
2 Bóveda
25 Saborit
29 Álex Remiro
14 Susaeta

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.