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La Liga
Referee: David Fernandez Borbalan
Ath Bilbao
U S T S T
2–1
Full-time
Celta
S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Celta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,8
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
This season — La Liga · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 44%
47%
40%
Points per game
1,5
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
60%
73%
Both score Ø 60%
67%
53%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,3
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,9
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
18 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 7
1 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Ath Bilbao 8. · Celta 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 15 11 4 0 +26 37
2 Barcelona 16 10 4 2 +25 34
3 Sevilla 16 10 3 3 +11 33
4 Villarreal 16 8 5 3 +14 29
5 Sociedad 16 9 2 5 +7 29
6 Ath Madrid 16 8 4 4 +15 28
7 Eibar 16 6 5 5 +2 23
8 Ath Bilbao 15 7 2 6 +2 23
9 Espanol 16 5 7 4 -2 22
10 Las Palmas 16 5 6 5 +2 21
11 Malaga 16 5 6 5 -1 21
12 Alaves 16 5 6 5 -2 21
13 Celta 15 6 3 6 -5 21
14 Betis 16 5 3 8 -11 18
15 La Coruna 16 4 4 8 -5 16
16 Leganes 16 4 4 8 -14 16
17 Valencia 15 3 3 9 -8 12
18 Sp Gijon 16 3 3 10 -16 12
19 Granada 16 1 6 9 -19 9
20 Osasuna 16 1 4 11 -21 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Bilbao Celta
Mikel Vesga 🟨
10′
38′
🟨 Pablo Hernández
41′
🟨 John Guidetti
Half-time 0–0
San José 🔁
↦ Mikel Vesga
46′
54′
Iago Aspas 0–1
T. Bongonda
56′
🟨 Facundo Roncaglia
Raúl García 🟨
58′
Susaeta 🔁
↦ Muniain
63′
71′
🔁 M. Díaz
↦ J. Guidetti
Sabin 🔁
↦ Raúl García
73′
Íñigo Lekue 🟨
79′
80′
🟨 Facundo Roncaglia
80′
🟥 Facundo Roncaglia
82′
🔁 Sergi Gómez
↦ Iago Aspas
1–1 Aduriz
82′
Yeray Álvarez 🟨
86′
86′
🔁 P. Sisto
↦ T. Bongonda
2–1 San José
Iñaki Williams
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
26 Kepa G
24 Balenziaga D
2 Bóveda D
27 Yeray Álvarez D
15 Lekue D
22 Raúl García M
7 Beñat M
12 Mikel Vesga M
20 Aduriz F
10 Muniain F
11 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (7)
6 San José
14 Susaeta
19 Sabin
1 Iraizoz
16 Etxeita
17 Mikel Rico
25 Saborit

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Celta

4-3-3
13 Rubén Blanco G
24 F. Roncaglia D
22 G. Cabral D
2 Hugo Mallo D
19 Jonny Castro D
18 D. Wass M
8 P. Hernández M
6 N. Radoja M
10 Iago Aspas F
9 J. Guidetti F
7 T. Bongonda M
Bench (7)
5 M. Díaz
20 Sergi Gómez
11 P. Sisto
3 Fontàs
25 G. Rossi
28 Pape Diop
1 Sergio Álvarez

Coach: E. Berizzo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

David Fernandez Borbalan · 58 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.