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Ligue 1

Referee: Olivier Thual

Montpellier

S T U T T

2–1

Full-time

Bastia

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

50%

36%

Both score Ø 57%

64%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Montpellier 16. · Bastia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	23	16	4	3	+46	52
2	Nice	23	14	7	2	+20	49
3	Paris SG	22	14	4	4	+26	46
4	Lyon	21	12	1	8	+15	37
5	St Etienne	22	8	9	5	+6	33
6	Marseille	23	9	6	8	+1	33
7	Bordeaux	22	8	8	6	-3	32
8	Guingamp	22	8	7	7	+2	31
9	Rennes	22	8	6	8	-4	30
10	Toulouse	22	7	5	10	-4	26
11	Lille	22	7	5	10	-6	26
12	Nantes	22	7	5	10	-14	26
13	Metz	22	7	5	10	-16	26
14	Dijon	22	5	9	8	-2	24
15	Nancy	21	6	6	9	-9	24
16	Montpellier	22	5	8	9	-9	23
17	Angers	22	6	5	11	-9	23
18	Bastia	22	5	7	10	-7	22
19	Caen	21	6	4	11	-12	22
20	Lorient	22	5	3	14	-21	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	12	10	1	1	+31	31
2	Nice	12	9	3	0	+18	30
3	Paris SG	11	7	4	0	+21	25
4	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+11	24
5	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+8	24
6	Lyon	11	7	0	4	+8	21
7	Guingamp	10	6	3	1	+6	21
8	St Etienne	11	5	5	1	+6	20
9	Caen	10	6	2	2	+1	20
10	Montpellier	10	5	4	1	+10	19
11	Toulouse	11	6	1	4	+4	19
12	Bordeaux	11	5	3	3	-1	18
13	Dijon	11	4	5	2	+6	17
14	Lille	11	5	2	4	+0	17
15	Angers	11	4	4	3	+1	16
16	Nancy	11	5	1	5	+1	16
17	Lorient	11	5	1	5	-4	16
18	Bastia	12	3	6	3	+1	15
19	Metz	10	4	3	3	-6	15
20	Nantes	11	3	3	5	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	11	6	3	2	+15	21
2	Paris SG	11	7	0	4	+5	21
3	Nice	11	5	4	2	+2	19
4	Lyon	10	5	1	4	+7	16
5	Bordeaux	11	3	5	3	-2	14
6	Nantes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
7	St Etienne	11	3	4	4	+0	13
8	Metz	12	3	2	7	-10	11
9	Guingamp	12	2	4	6	-4	10
10	Lille	11	2	3	6	-6	9
11	Marseille	12	2	3	7	-10	9
12	Nancy	10	1	5	4	-10	8
13	Dijon	11	1	4	6	-8	7
14	Bastia	10	2	1	7	-8	7
15	Toulouse	11	1	4	6	-8	7
16	Angers	11	2	1	8	-10	7
17	Rennes	10	1	3	6	-12	6
18	Montpellier	12	0	4	8	-19	4
19	Caen	11	0	2	9	-13	2
20	Lorient	11	0	2	9	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.