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Championship

Referee: Paul Tierney

Nott'm Forest

T U S T S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 30%

31%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

59%

32%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

70% Possession 30%

17 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 19. · Aston Villa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	29	20	2	7	+34	62
2	Brighton	28	18	6	4	+23	60
3	Leeds	29	17	3	9	+13	54
4	Reading	28	16	5	7	+9	53
5	Huddersfield	26	16	4	6	+7	52
6	Norwich	29	14	4	11	+8	46
7	Derby	29	13	7	9	+8	46
8	Barnsley	30	13	6	11	+4	45
9	Sheffield Weds	27	12	7	8	+3	43
10	Preston	30	11	9	10	+1	42
11	Fulham	27	10	10	7	+9	40
12	Birmingham	30	10	10	10	-7	40
13	Brentford	28	10	6	12	+2	36
14	Aston Villa	28	8	12	8	-2	36
15	Ipswich	30	9	9	12	-8	36
16	Cardiff	30	10	6	14	-10	36
17	Wolves	29	9	8	12	-2	35
18	QPR	30	9	7	14	-13	34
19	Nott'm Forest	29	9	6	14	-7	33
20	Bristol City	29	9	4	16	-3	31
21	Burton Albion	30	8	7	15	-11	31
22	Blackburn	29	7	7	15	-12	28
23	Wigan	28	6	7	15	-9	25
24	Rotherham	30	4	4	22	-37	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	14	11	2	1	+21	35
2	Leeds	15	10	2	3	+12	32
3	Huddersfield	13	10	2	1	+11	32
4	Newcastle	15	10	1	4	+18	31
5	Norwich	14	10	1	3	+17	31
6	Reading	14	9	3	2	+11	30
7	Aston Villa	13	6	7	0	+9	25
8	Derby	14	7	4	3	+8	25
9	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
10	Birmingham	16	7	4	5	+1	25
11	Nott'm Forest	14	7	3	4	+5	24
12	Ipswich	16	6	6	4	+2	24
13	Bristol City	15	7	2	6	+2	23
14	Barnsley	16	6	5	5	+1	23
15	Cardiff	16	7	2	7	-2	23
16	Brentford	14	6	4	4	+9	22
17	Preston	15	6	4	5	+4	22
18	Burton Albion	15	6	2	7	+0	20
19	Blackburn	16	5	5	6	-2	20
20	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
21	QPR	15	4	4	7	-8	16
22	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
23	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	-4	15
24	Wigan	14	3	3	8	-6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	14	7	4	3	+2	25
3	Fulham	14	6	5	3	+7	23
4	Reading	14	7	2	5	-2	23
5	Barnsley	14	7	1	6	+3	22
6	Leeds	14	7	1	6	+1	22
7	Derby	15	6	3	6	+0	21
8	Wolves	16	5	5	6	+2	20
9	Preston	15	5	5	5	-3	20
10	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
11	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
12	QPR	15	5	3	7	-5	18
13	Birmingham	14	3	6	5	-8	15
14	Norwich	15	4	3	8	-9	15
15	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
17	Cardiff	14	3	4	7	-8	13
18	Ipswich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
19	Burton Albion	15	2	5	8	-11	11
20	Aston Villa	15	2	5	8	-11	11
21	Nott'm Forest	15	2	3	10	-12	9
22	Bristol City	14	2	2	10	-5	8
23	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
24	Rotherham	16	0	1	15	-33	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.