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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Cardiff

S S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 38/37 matches

Win Ø 41%

39%

43%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

39%

38%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 7. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	39	21	13	5	+30	76
2	Middlesbrough	38	22	7	9	+26	73
3	Brighton	37	19	13	5	+17	70
4	Hull	35	19	8	8	+29	65
5	Derby	37	16	13	8	+14	61
6	Sheffield Weds	35	16	11	8	+20	59
7	Cardiff	38	15	14	9	+8	59
8	Ipswich	38	16	10	12	+2	58
9	Birmingham	37	15	11	11	+6	56
10	Preston	39	14	14	11	+2	56
11	QPR	39	12	15	12	+3	51
12	Wolves	38	12	12	14	-5	48
13	Leeds	37	11	14	12	-8	47
14	Blackburn	39	11	13	15	+0	46
15	Nott'm Forest	38	11	13	14	-2	46
16	Huddersfield	38	12	9	17	-1	45
17	Reading	37	11	12	14	-1	45
18	Brentford	37	12	7	18	-11	43
19	Bristol City	38	11	10	17	-18	43
20	Rotherham	38	11	6	21	-18	39
21	Fulham	38	8	14	16	-7	38
22	Milton Keynes Dons	38	9	10	19	-19	37
23	Charlton	38	7	11	20	-35	32
24	Bolton	38	4	14	20	-32	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	19	13	4	2	+22	43
2	Middlesbrough	18	13	3	2	+21	42
3	Brighton	19	13	3	3	+13	42
4	Hull	16	11	5	0	+26	38
5	Sheffield Weds	18	11	5	2	+21	38
6	Cardiff	19	10	7	2	+11	37
7	Derby	19	10	6	3	+15	36
8	QPR	20	8	8	4	+10	32
9	Reading	19	7	9	3	+8	30
10	Ipswich	19	8	6	5	+5	30
11	Birmingham	18	9	3	6	+3	30
12	Preston	19	7	8	4	+2	29
13	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+6	28
14	Nott'm Forest	19	7	6	6	+3	27
15	Huddersfield	19	7	4	8	+5	25
16	Wolves	19	6	7	6	-1	25
17	Rotherham	19	7	4	8	-3	25
18	Brentford	19	7	3	9	-3	24
19	Milton Keynes Dons	19	7	3	9	-7	24
20	Bolton	19	4	10	5	-1	22
21	Leeds	19	5	7	7	-6	22
22	Bristol City	19	5	6	8	-6	21
23	Fulham	19	5	5	9	-1	20
24	Charlton	19	4	8	7	-7	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	8	9	3	+8	33
2	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+5	31
3	Brighton	18	6	10	2	+4	28
4	Ipswich	19	8	4	7	-3	28
5	Hull	19	8	3	8	+3	27
6	Preston	20	7	6	7	+0	27
7	Birmingham	19	6	8	5	+3	26
8	Derby	18	6	7	5	-1	25
9	Leeds	18	6	7	5	-2	25
10	Wolves	19	6	5	8	-4	23
11	Cardiff	19	5	7	7	-3	22
12	Bristol City	19	6	4	9	-12	22
13	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-1	21
14	Huddersfield	19	5	5	9	-6	20
15	Nott'm Forest	19	4	7	8	-5	19
16	QPR	19	4	7	8	-7	19
17	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-8	19
18	Fulham	19	3	9	7	-6	18
19	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-6	18
20	Reading	18	4	3	11	-9	15
21	Rotherham	19	4	2	13	-15	14
22	Milton Keynes Dons	19	2	7	10	-12	13
23	Charlton	19	3	3	13	-28	12
24	Bolton	19	0	4	15	-31	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.