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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Arouca

S U S S T

3–2

Full-time

Academica

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Academica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

37%

19%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 54%

56%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Academica 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	23	1	4	+57	70
2	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+39	65
3	Porto	27	19	4	4	+30	61
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+20	50
5	Arouca	27	10	11	6	+4	41
6	Rio Ave	27	11	6	10	-1	39
7	Pacos Ferreira	27	9	9	9	+0	36
8	Estoril	27	10	6	11	+0	36
9	Guimaraes	27	8	10	9	-5	34
10	Nacional	27	9	7	11	-6	34
11	Belenenses	27	8	9	10	-18	33
12	Maritimo	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	27	6	10	11	-12	28
14	Moreirense	27	7	7	13	-13	28
15	U. Madeira	27	6	7	14	-19	25
16	Boavista	27	6	6	15	-14	24
17	Academica	27	5	8	14	-21	23
18	Tondela	27	3	5	19	-25	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	0	2	+34	36
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+24	30
5	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
6	Nacional	14	7	3	4	+3	24
7	Arouca	13	6	4	3	+6	22
8	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
9	U. Madeira	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	-3	19
12	Academica	14	5	4	5	-6	19
13	Guimaraes	14	4	5	5	+1	17
14	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	+0	17
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	8	4	-8	14
16	Moreirense	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Boavista	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Tondela	14	1	3	10	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+23	34
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
3	Porto	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-4	20
5	Arouca	14	4	7	3	-2	19
6	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	5	4	-3	17
8	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	-6	17
9	Estoril	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-4	14
11	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Boavista	13	4	2	7	-5	14
13	Belenenses	14	3	5	6	-15	14
14	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Nacional	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-11	8
17	U. Madeira	14	1	2	11	-21	5
18	Academica	13	0	4	9	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.