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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

Freiburg

S U U T S

1–0

Full-time

Mainz

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 36%

41%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

70%

63%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

59%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Mainz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	20	5	2	+53	65
2	RB Leipzig	27	17	4	6	+20	55
3	Hoffenheim	27	13	12	2	+24	51
4	Dortmund	27	14	8	5	+30	50
5	FC Koln	27	10	10	7	+8	40
6	Hertha	27	12	4	11	+1	40
7	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	8	10	-2	38
8	Freiburg	27	11	5	11	-12	38
9	M'gladbach	27	10	6	11	-3	36
10	Werder Bremen	28	10	6	12	-4	36
11	Leverkusen	27	10	5	12	-1	35
12	Schalke 04	27	9	7	11	+2	34
13	Wolfsburg	27	8	6	13	-12	30
14	Hamburg	27	8	6	13	-24	30
15	Mainz	27	8	5	14	-10	29
16	Augsburg	27	7	8	12	-17	29
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	27	7	4	16	-17	25
18	Darmstadt	27	4	3	20	-36	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+39	33
2	Dortmund	13	10	3	0	+25	33
3	Hoffenheim	14	9	5	0	+18	32
4	RB Leipzig	13	10	1	2	+15	31
5	Hertha	13	10	1	2	+13	31
6	FC Koln	13	7	5	1	+10	26
7	Schalke 04	14	7	3	4	+11	24
8	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	+9	24
9	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	6	2	+6	24
10	Freiburg	13	7	1	5	-5	22
11	Hamburg	13	6	3	4	-5	21
12	Werder Bremen	14	6	1	7	+3	19
13	Mainz	14	5	4	5	+2	19
14	Leverkusen	14	5	4	5	+2	19
15	Darmstadt	14	4	3	7	-9	15
16	Wolfsburg	14	4	2	8	-7	14
17	Augsburg	14	3	5	6	-8	14
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+14	32
2	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+5	24
3	Hoffenheim	13	4	7	2	+6	19
4	Dortmund	14	4	5	5	+5	17
5	Werder Bremen	14	4	5	5	-7	17
6	Leverkusen	13	5	1	7	-3	16
7	Wolfsburg	13	4	4	5	-5	16
8	Freiburg	14	4	4	6	-7	16
9	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-9	15
10	FC Koln	14	3	5	6	-2	14
11	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	2	8	-8	14
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	4	1	9	-9	13
13	M'gladbach	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Schalke 04	13	2	4	7	-9	10
15	Mainz	13	3	1	9	-12	10
16	Hertha	14	2	3	9	-12	9
17	Hamburg	14	2	3	9	-19	9
18	Darmstadt	13	0	0	13	-27	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.