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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Bournemouth

U S S U U

1–3

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 53%

29%

77%

Points per game

1,1

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

67%

Both score Ø 53%

55%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 15. · Chelsea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	30	23	3	4	+38	72
2	Tottenham	31	20	8	3	+42	68
3	Liverpool	32	18	9	5	+28	63
4	Man City	31	18	7	6	+25	61
5	Arsenal	29	16	6	7	+25	54
6	Man United	29	14	12	3	+19	54
7	Everton	31	14	9	8	+19	51
8	West Brom	32	12	8	12	-2	44
9	Southampton	30	11	7	12	+0	40
10	Watford	31	10	7	14	-16	37
11	Leicester	30	10	6	14	-10	36
12	Burnley	32	10	6	16	-12	36
13	Stoke	32	9	9	14	-13	36
14	West Ham	32	10	6	16	-15	36
15	Bournemouth	31	9	8	14	-12	35
16	Crystal Palace	30	9	4	17	-11	31
17	Hull	32	8	6	18	-31	30
18	Swansea	32	8	4	20	-30	28
19	Middlesbrough	31	4	12	15	-15	24
20	Sunderland	30	5	5	20	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	16	14	2	0	+31	44
2	Chelsea	15	13	0	2	+28	39
3	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+25	37
4	Everton	15	10	4	1	+24	34
5	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+16	33
6	Burnley	16	10	2	4	+9	32
7	Man City	15	8	6	1	+12	30
8	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
9	West Brom	16	9	2	5	+8	29
10	Man United	16	6	9	1	+10	27
11	Watford	16	7	4	5	+1	25
12	Hull	16	7	4	5	-1	25
13	Bournemouth	15	7	3	5	+3	24
14	Stoke	16	6	5	5	+1	23
15	Southampton	14	6	4	4	+2	22
16	West Ham	16	6	3	7	-9	21
17	Swansea	16	5	3	8	-11	18
18	Middlesbrough	15	3	5	7	-5	14
19	Crystal Palace	14	4	1	9	-5	13
20	Sunderland	15	3	4	8	-12	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+10	33
2	Man City	16	10	1	5	+13	31
3	Man United	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Liverpool	16	7	5	4	+3	26
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+11	24
6	Arsenal	14	6	3	5	+9	21
7	Southampton	16	5	3	8	-2	18
8	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-6	18
9	Everton	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	West Ham	16	4	3	9	-6	15
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-14	13
13	Watford	15	3	3	9	-17	12
14	Bournemouth	16	2	5	9	-15	11
15	Middlesbrough	16	1	7	8	-10	10
16	Swansea	16	3	1	12	-19	10
17	Sunderland	15	2	1	12	-17	7
18	Leicester	14	1	3	10	-18	6
19	Hull	16	1	2	13	-30	5
20	Burnley	16	0	4	12	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.