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Bundesliga

Referee: Frank Willenborg

Darmstadt

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Darmstadt Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 24%

13%

35%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

61%

Both score Ø 48%

39%

57%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Darmstadt 18. · Mainz 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	17	5	1	+44	56
2	RB Leipzig	23	15	4	4	+19	49
3	Dortmund	23	12	7	4	+27	43
4	Hoffenheim	23	10	11	2	+20	41
5	Hertha	23	11	4	8	+5	37
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	10	5	8	+2	35
7	FC Koln	23	8	9	6	+6	33
8	Freiburg	23	10	3	10	-10	33
9	M'gladbach	23	9	5	9	-2	32
10	Leverkusen	24	9	4	11	-2	31
11	Mainz	23	8	5	10	-6	29
12	Augsburg	23	7	7	9	-7	28
13	Schalke 04	23	7	6	10	+1	27
14	Werder Bremen	24	7	5	12	-13	26
15	Wolfsburg	23	6	5	12	-13	23
16	Hamburg	23	6	5	12	-23	23
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	23	5	3	15	-18	18
18	Darmstadt	23	3	3	17	-30	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	11	9	1	1	+14	28
2	RB Leipzig	11	9	1	1	+12	28
3	Bayern Munich	11	8	3	0	+30	27
4	Dortmund	11	8	3	0	+21	27
5	Hoffenheim	12	7	5	0	+16	26
6	M'gladbach	12	6	3	3	+9	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	3	2	+6	21
8	Freiburg	11	7	0	4	-2	21
9	Schalke 04	12	6	2	4	+8	20
10	FC Koln	11	5	5	1	+7	20
11	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+4	19
12	Leverkusen	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Hamburg	11	4	3	4	-7	15
14	Werder Bremen	12	4	1	7	-3	13
15	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-7	13
16	Darmstadt	12	3	3	6	-8	12
17	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-7	11
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	2	2	7	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+7	21
3	Dortmund	12	4	4	4	+6	16
4	Hoffenheim	11	3	6	2	+4	15
5	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	+0	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	2	6	-4	14
7	FC Koln	12	3	4	5	-1	13
8	Leverkusen	11	4	1	6	-4	13
9	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-10	13
10	Wolfsburg	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Freiburg	12	3	3	6	-8	12
12	M'gladbach	11	3	2	6	-11	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	3	1	8	-9	10
14	Mainz	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Hertha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Hamburg	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	Schalke 04	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Darmstadt	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.