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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Porto

S S S U U

3–0

Full-time

Belenenses

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

3,0

1,2

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,7

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 50%

70%

30%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

59%

33%

Both score Ø 45%

41%

48%

Average goals

2,7

1,9

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Belenenses 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	27	20	5	2	+43	65
2	Porto	27	19	7	1	+46	64
3	Sp Lisbon	27	17	6	4	+24	57
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+17	50
5	Guimaraes	27	13	8	6	+10	47
6	Maritimo	27	11	8	8	+2	41
7	Rio Ave	27	11	5	11	-3	38
8	Chaves	27	8	12	7	+1	36
9	Feirense	28	10	5	13	-16	35
10	Boavista	27	8	10	9	+1	34
11	Vitoria Setubal	27	9	7	11	+0	34
12	Belenenses	27	8	8	11	-9	32
13	Pacos Ferreira	28	6	10	12	-12	28
14	Arouca	28	8	4	16	-19	28
15	Estoril	27	6	7	14	-12	25
16	Moreirense	27	5	6	16	-18	21
17	Nacional	27	3	8	16	-27	17
18	Tondela	27	3	8	16	-28	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+29	38
2	Benfica	14	11	3	0	+31	36
3	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+18	32
4	Sp Braga	14	9	3	2	+16	30
5	Maritimo	13	8	3	2	+9	27
6	Chaves	14	6	7	1	+7	25
7	Vitoria Setubal	14	7	3	4	+7	24
8	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	7	2	+3	22
9	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+1	21
10	Guimaraes	13	5	5	3	+4	20
11	Belenenses	14	4	5	5	-2	17
12	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
13	Arouca	14	5	1	8	-6	16
14	Boavista	13	4	3	6	+2	15
15	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-4	12
16	Tondela	13	3	3	7	-7	12
17	Nacional	14	2	6	6	-8	12
18	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+6	27
3	Porto	13	7	5	1	+17	26
4	Sp Lisbon	14	7	4	3	+6	25
5	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+1	20
6	Boavista	14	4	7	3	-1	19
7	Feirense	13	5	3	5	-6	18
8	Rio Ave	14	5	2	7	-4	17
9	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-7	15
10	Estoril	14	3	5	6	-4	14
11	Maritimo	14	3	5	6	-7	14
12	Arouca	14	3	3	8	-13	12
13	Chaves	13	2	5	6	-6	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Moreirense	14	3	0	11	-14	9
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-15	6
17	Nacional	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Tondela	14	0	5	9	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.