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Bundesliga

Referee: Wolfgang Stark

Freiburg

U T S U U

2–5

Full-time

Werder Bremen

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

40%

32%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

72%

Both score Ø 74%

72%

76%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

67% Possession 33%

13 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Werder Bremen 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	25	19	5	1	+48	62
2	RB Leipzig	25	15	4	6	+15	49
3	Hoffenheim	26	12	12	2	+23	48
4	Dortmund	25	13	7	5	+27	46
5	Hertha	26	12	4	10	+2	40
6	FC Koln	25	9	10	6	+8	37
7	Ein Frankfurt	25	10	6	9	-1	36
8	Freiburg	25	10	5	10	-10	35
9	Schalke 04	25	9	6	10	+5	33
10	M'gladbach	25	9	5	11	-4	32
11	Leverkusen	25	9	4	12	-3	31
12	Mainz	25	8	5	12	-8	29
13	Werder Bremen	25	8	5	12	-10	29
14	Augsburg	25	7	8	10	-10	29
15	Wolfsburg	25	8	5	12	-11	29
16	Hamburg	25	7	6	12	-22	27
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	25	5	4	16	-19	19
18	Darmstadt	25	4	3	18	-30	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	13	10	1	2	+13	31
2	Bayern Munich	12	9	3	0	+33	30
3	Dortmund	12	9	3	0	+22	30
4	Hoffenheim	13	8	5	0	+17	29
5	RB Leipzig	12	9	1	2	+11	28
6	Schalke 04	13	7	2	4	+11	23
7	FC Koln	12	6	5	1	+9	23
8	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	4	2	+6	22
9	Freiburg	12	7	1	4	-2	22
10	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+8	21
11	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+3	19
12	Leverkusen	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Hamburg	12	5	3	4	-6	18
14	Werder Bremen	13	5	1	7	+0	16
15	Darmstadt	13	4	3	6	-7	15
16	Wolfsburg	13	4	2	7	-6	14
17	Augsburg	13	3	5	5	-7	14
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	2	3	7	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	2	1	+15	32
2	RB Leipzig	13	6	3	4	+4	21
3	Hoffenheim	13	4	7	2	+6	19
4	Dortmund	13	4	4	5	+5	16
5	Augsburg	12	4	3	5	-3	15
6	Wolfsburg	12	4	3	5	-5	15
7	FC Koln	13	3	5	5	-1	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	2	7	-7	14
9	Leverkusen	12	4	1	7	-5	13
10	Freiburg	13	3	4	6	-8	13
11	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-10	13
12	M'gladbach	12	3	2	7	-12	11
13	Schalke 04	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	1	9	-10	10
15	Mainz	12	3	1	8	-11	10
16	Hertha	13	2	3	8	-11	9
17	Hamburg	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Darmstadt	12	0	0	12	-23	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.