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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Mainz

S U T T T

2–3

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 47%

31%

62%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

62%

65%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

18 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 20

6 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 15. · RB Leipzig 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	20	5	2	+53	65
2	RB Leipzig	26	16	4	6	+19	52
3	Hoffenheim	27	13	12	2	+24	51
4	Dortmund	27	14	8	5	+30	50
5	FC Koln	27	10	10	7	+8	40
6	Hertha	26	12	4	10	+2	40
7	Ein Frankfurt	27	10	7	10	-2	37
8	Werder Bremen	27	10	5	12	-4	35
9	Freiburg	26	10	5	11	-13	35
10	Schalke 04	27	9	7	11	+2	34
11	M'gladbach	26	9	6	11	-4	33
12	Leverkusen	26	9	5	12	-3	32
13	Wolfsburg	26	8	6	12	-11	30
14	Hamburg	27	8	6	13	-24	30
15	Mainz	26	8	5	13	-9	29
16	Augsburg	26	7	8	11	-16	29
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	26	6	4	16	-18	22
18	Darmstadt	26	4	3	19	-34	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+39	33
2	Dortmund	13	10	3	0	+25	33
3	Hoffenheim	14	9	5	0	+18	32
4	RB Leipzig	13	10	1	2	+15	31
5	Hertha	13	10	1	2	+13	31
6	FC Koln	13	7	5	1	+10	26
7	Schalke 04	14	7	3	4	+11	24
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	5	2	+6	23
9	Freiburg	13	7	1	5	-5	22
10	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+8	21
11	Hamburg	13	6	3	4	-5	21
12	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+3	19
13	Werder Bremen	14	6	1	7	+3	19
14	Leverkusen	14	5	4	5	+2	19
15	Darmstadt	13	4	3	6	-7	15
16	Wolfsburg	13	4	2	7	-6	14
17	Augsburg	13	3	5	5	-7	14
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+14	32
2	RB Leipzig	13	6	3	4	+4	21
3	Hoffenheim	13	4	7	2	+6	19
4	Dortmund	14	4	5	5	+5	17
5	Wolfsburg	13	4	4	5	-5	16
6	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-7	16
7	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-9	15
8	FC Koln	14	3	5	6	-2	14
9	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	2	8	-8	14
10	Leverkusen	12	4	1	7	-5	13
11	Freiburg	13	3	4	6	-8	13
12	M'gladbach	13	3	3	7	-12	12
13	Schalke 04	13	2	4	7	-9	10
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	1	9	-10	10
15	Mainz	13	3	1	9	-12	10
16	Hertha	13	2	3	8	-11	9
17	Hamburg	14	2	3	9	-19	9
18	Darmstadt	13	0	0	13	-27	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.