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Bundesliga

Referee: Markus Schmidt

Freiburg

T S T

1–0

Full-time

Hamburg

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

20 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 0

11 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 0

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 12. · Hamburg 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Hertha	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	+6	6
6	M'gladbach	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Wolfsburg	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Mainz	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Hoffenheim	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Freiburg	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Darmstadt	3	1	0	2	-7	3
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Hamburg	3	0	1	2	-6	1
17	Schalke 04	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Werder Bremen	3	0	0	3	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Wolfsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
15	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+4	4
2	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	1	1	-2	1
10	Dortmund	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Leverkusen	2	0	0	2	-2	0
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Schalke 04	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Freiburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-8	0
18	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.